Public accounts should end this year in balance (0% balance) and in 2026 and 2027 deficits will return, albeit slight; The job market, even with the current law that the government intends to make more flexible, will remain “strong”, with employment breaking successive records and unemployment decreasing, predicts the European Commission (EC), in the new economic forecasts, released this Monday in Brussels.
According to the new study, presented by Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, “domestic demand should continue to support economic growth in Portugal”, although “in a context of uncertainty in world trade”.
“Total inflation is projected to [portuguesa] decrease again to 2% in 2026 and 2027, due to the recent fall in the prices of energy and industrial products and the marginal slowdown in service prices”.
“Unemployment is expected to continue to decline in a context of strong job creation.”
The weight of the unemployed population should end this year at 6.3% of the active population and then decrease to 6.2% in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, while employment will continue to hit successive historic highs until 2027, although its growth may be more moderate.
Even so, says the EC, net job creation should accelerate to 1.7% this year, then smooth out to 1.1% next year and 0.9% in 2027.
According to the Commission’s new assessment of the situation, “despite some moderation in tourism, job creation regained momentum during the summer of 2025, contributing to a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate to a 12-month average of 6.3% from August 2025, compared to 6.5% in 2024”.
“Both labor demand and supply increased at an accelerated pace, pushing the employment rate to new historic highs in the second and third quarters of 2025” and “employment growth is projected to moderate slightly over the forecast horizon, while unemployment is expected to gradually decline to an annual average of 6.1% in 2027”, indicates the new study.
In Public Finance, Brussels states that “general government balance surpluses are expected to disappear, with a deficit estimated at 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, while public debt is expected to continue to decline to less than 90% of GDP by the end of the forecast horizon [2027]”.