Even the Government and the EU agree with my forecast from last January that Spanish GDP would grow over 3% in 2025; They think it will be 2.9%. Surely the INE will review this figure in the middle of next year and increase it, as it did last year.
Surprising growth for analysts, when central Europe does not reach growth of 2% and, in some cases, There are countries that have had a recession.
The reasons for this growth are several. One is strong sectors of the Spanish economy do not experience the industrial crisis of international trade.
The nearly 100 million foreign visitors and domestic travelers sustain the tourism economy. The growth of migration, especially from South America, contains wages in tourism by increasing the supply of labor.
That, together with the growth in prices due to inflation, gives profitability to companies of: hotel, travel, hospitality, leisure…And even artistic activity. An example: musicals in Madrid.
Non-tourist services in Spain represent – approximate figures – more than 7.5% of Spanish GDP and 16% of exports
Non-tourist services in Spain represent – approximate figures – more than 7.5% of Spanish GDP and 16% of exports. This activity does not require major facilities; It is an industry without factories.
But it needs human talent. The growth of the university sector and secondary and professional education have provided that talent. It is a sector with higher salaries than in tourism, but with value-added jobs.
With its companies and self-employed workers, the GDP grows continuously. The climate or the lack of means, before obstacles, are now advantages. The climate attracts talent that seeks quality of life and finds high-level infrastructure.
Agriculture and the Spanish agroindustrial sector compete well. Its Mediterranean is the garden of Europe. Central Europeans, just as they cannot conceive a year without the sun on their vacations, do not give up fresh foods that provide them with vitamins and health.
The agricultural and fishing sector accounts for 19.5% of Spanish exports. The fourth European power in this field and the eighth worldwide.
Spain is the developed country with the highest level of unemployment
However, private investment only rises by over 5%; below the pre-ovid situation. It is a weak point of the economy.
At the same time, consumption remains strong. Household spending has recovered to 3.3% and public spending rose 1.7% this year.
Spain is an economy open to the world, it receives tourists and migrants who spend and work, while it exports talent and goods of all kinds.
So why doesn’t unemployment drop below 10%?
Spain is the developed country with the highest level of unemployment. It is between 11% and 12% of the active population and it is expected that, if the economy remains strong, it will not drop below 10%, not even in 2027. Very high figures for a developed country.
The increase in population, via migration, increases the supply of workers, willing to occupy jobs at lower salaries.
That’s because it has a rigid labor market. In many sectors, compliance with labor standards is prohibitive and the temptation to fraud is high.
It is estimated that “informal work” (not including criminal work) is 15%. A portion of these workers receive black wages and some are also “signed up for unemployment.” There is no data on this last figure; If it were known, it would reduce the number of registered unemployed.
But, in any case, this decrease would be compensated by the “fixed discontinuous inactive” that the SEPE registry does not count as unemployed.
On the other hand, the increase in population, via migration, increases the supply of workers, willing to occupy jobs at lower salaries. This displaces those who are occupying those jobs into unemployment.
Furthermore, the accelerated rise in the SMI (interprofessional minimum wage) in recent years has expelled from the labor market “NEETS” (neither studies nor work experience), without training and who are not very productive. They do not perform enough to be employed.
According to Airef (Independent Fiscal Responsibility Agency) these increases in the SMI have meant that 150,000 jobs were not created; the Bank of Spain says 175,000; and the CEOE more than 250,000.
If the economy ministerMr. Body, the GDP growth is noted, the Minister of Labor, Mrs. Díaz, the high unemployment figures must be noted.
** JR Pin Arboledas is a professor at IESE.