On October 16, the second Government of Sébastien LEIGHT will face two motions of censure presented by the extremes of the Chamber: La Francia Insumisa, of Jean-Luc Mélenchonand National Group, of Jordan Bardella y Marine Le Pen. Both parties have in practice blocked the National Assembly since the legislative elections of June 2024, with irreconcilable positions.
Both the radical left and the extreme right consider a provocation that Emmanuel MacronPresident of the Republic, has once again entrusted the formation of the Government to Lecornu after his resignation on October 6.
Both demand the calling of legislative elections in which the New Popular Front can compete face to face with the National Group. The two blocs believe they can win: they were, in fact, the coalitions with the most votes in the first round of the legislative elections.
In the French National Assembly, each party acts independently, regardless of which coalition it runs in. In total there are 22 different formations, which cover the entire political spectrum and with a very fragmented distribution: the extreme left has about 123 seats; the center-left, with 80; the moderate center, with 168; the center-right, with 60, and the extreme right, with 143.
For either of the two motions to prosper, 289 votes are needed, that is, the union of the extremes is not enough. This is where the two classic parties of the Fifth Republic come into play: the socialist and the Gaullist, today under the name of The Republicans.
If 23 of its deputies supported any of the motions—and if it is assumed that the extremes will vote together, since both benefit—the Government LEIGHT It would fall a week after its formation and the elections would be around the corner.
The doubts of the Republicans
Since the beginning of his second term, Macron has taken care of the relationship of his party, Renaissance, with the center-right. Although one could think of a greater affinity with the Socialist Party – since, after all, Macron was Minister of Economy in the Government of Manuel Valls—, the president has preferred to seek support in the decomposition of Gaullism, where he believes he has a greater pool of votes.
It is worth remembering that, after the successive corruption scandals of Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy y François Fillonthe French center-right, which governed uninterruptedly from 1995 to 2011, has fallen into absolute irrelevance.
The refoundation of the UMP in 2015 to be renamed Los Republicanos led to an internal war: the faction headed by Éric Cows He ran alongside the National Agrupation in the legislative elections, while in other constituencies the more moderate candidates chose to maintain their independence.
Perhaps that is why the first head of government that Macron appointed after the elections was Michel Barniera classic of the UMP and former minister in the Executives of Jean-Pierre Raffarin y Fillon in the 2000s.
Also his successor, François Bayrouhad been a minister with Édouard Balladur during cohabitation with François Mitterrand in the early nineties. The winks were evident and intended to revive a sensible right in the face of the populist rise.
Concessions to the socialists
The attempt did not work, and in the process Macron managed to deeply irritate the socialists, who already saw themselves in the Government after the election results.
The center-right, also hit by the prison sentence of Sarkozy – the first former president of the Republic to go to prison – is looking for a way to regain influence, and the collaboration with Macron could be taking its toll.
In the latest survey by the IFOP institute, published last week, the Republicans obtained an estimated 11% of the vote, compared to 13% for the centrist party.
For this reason, Lecornu, in his second attempt at government, has decided to relegate The Republicans to try to ingratiate himself with the socialists and offer them a more than symbolic concession: the postponement of the pension reform until the presidential elections of 2027 and the renunciation of governing by decree, as he had been doing due to the lack of parliamentary support.
That decision has been enough for the socialists, for the moment, to give the prime minister a margin and announce that they will not vote in favor of his dismissal on Thursday. “There is no reason to do it anymore, if the Government finally listens to us,” said a spokesperson.
However, this maneuver may reactivate the possibility that the Republicans will vote against Lecornu, with the intention of going to the polls without the burden of Macron and perhaps recovering part of their traditional electorate.
The dispersion of small parties makes the outcome unpredictable: if the vote is decided by one or two seats, the result can depend on any minority group.
Even if none of the motions succeed, Lecornu’s future seems like a pointless kick forward. If he does not give in to the socialists, they will bring him down; If he gives in too much, it will be the right that takes him down.
The elections, therefore, seem inevitable. What remains to be seen is whether they will take the Fifth Republic ahead, something that cannot be ruled out today.