After almost 24 hours of meetings in Brussels and 20 months of negotiations, European Union (EU) environment ministers agreed on a climate target for 2040, which “softens” the initial proposal. Instead of an actual 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions (compared to 1990 levels) by 2040 – initially proposed as an interim step towards climate neutrality by 2050 – the Council decided to move towards a reduction of 85%, plus a 5% contribution to international carbon credits, allowing countries to invest in sustainable projects outside the EU that now count towards their national target of 90%.
Ministers also agreed on a intermediate target for 2035, with cuts between 66.25% and 72.5%, in line with the United Nations request for all countries to present climate plans before the Conference of the UN Parties on Climate Change (COP30) which begins this Thursday with the Leaders’ Summit (6 and 7 November) bringing together 57 heads of State and Government, including the Portuguese Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro.
“The European Union has been leading climate action, not only in ambition but also in implementing measures on the ground, and that was why It is essential that we arrive at COP30 with a firm position“, said Maria da Graça Carvalho this Wednesday, in a note sent to newsrooms. “Satisfied”, the minister considers that the understanding reached “illustrates our determination in this matter”.
For the President of the European Council, António Costa, the decision represents a “firm commitment” by the EU to the climate transition. “The EU remains firmly committed to a just climate transition, balanced and socially responsible – a transition that is pragmatic, economically efficient and that generates economic opportunities”, wrote Costa on social media and reaffirmed the “EU’s global leadership in the fight against climate change”. Together with the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, António Costa represents the EU at COP 30.
Unambitious agreement, environmentalists criticize
However, several environmental non-governmental organizations consider the result “unambitious” or even “disappointing”. For Sven Harmeling, from the coalition Climate Action Network (CAN) Europeof which ZERO is part, “this agreement is much weaker than the 90% reference suggests”. And he clarifies that “by giving in to pressure from some States, the ministers dangerously opened the door to external credits, compromising the integrity of the European transition”. Francisco Ferreira, from Zero, recalls that, “according to the initial ambition, if we aim for an emissions reduction of 55% by 2030 and 90% by 2040, the 2035 target should not be less than 72.5%”.
Greenpeace also contested the agreed value, as it allows 5% of this 90% to be offset by the acquisition of carbon credits outside the community bloc, when “governments could transfer five more points from their own national targets”. In a statement, the organization recalls that the European Scientific Advisory Council on Climate Change proposed the low end of the 90%-95% emission reduction range households by 2040.
In the same vein, WWF International contested the agreement: “On paper, it may not look so bad, but in reality, reliance on international offsets of up to 5% and the inclusion of an emergency pause for carbon sinks could reduce the actual domestic target to less than 85%.”
The European Commission’s original proposal envisaged a 90% domestic cut, with only 3% from external credits. The EU’s independent scientific advisors considered this target consistent with science, warning that resorting to international credits would divert crucial investments from domestic decarbonization. However, environmentalists admit that the political agreement reached — and which still has to be negotiated with the European Parliament by November 13 — gensuring that the EU does not arrive empty-handed at COP30, in Belém do Pará.
Pressures and concessions
For Portuguese MEP Lídia Pereira (from the PSD, which is part of the European People’s Party) – who leads the European Parliament delegation at the climate summit in Belém – the proposal is on the table “it is not a retreat, but an adjustment to the priority given to European competitiveness”. Recalling the Draghi Report, Lídia Pereira, emphasizes to Expresso that “decarbonization is an opportunity in economic terms”.
The agreement at the European Council of Environment ministers was reached by a qualified majority, with France and Portugal voting in favor of flexibility; Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands opposing any further weakening and Slovakia, Hungary and Poland voting against. To gain support, the EU postponed the launch of the new European carbon market until 2028.
“Setting a climate target is not just choosing a number, it is a political decision with profound consequences for the continent,” said Lars Aagaard, Danish Climate Minister, quoted by Reuters. Denmark currently presides over the rotating European Council and Lars Aagaard has highlighted the “need to balance competitiveness, social justice and security”.
* news updated at 6pm with the Minister of the Environment’s position on the agreement