On October 21, 2017, practically one year after the victory of Donald Trump In the US elections and with the impact of Brexit still present, the populist platform ano was made with the triumph in the Czech legislative elections. The training headed by Andrej Babis He got 78 of the 200 seats in dispute, which allowed him to form a minority government for the next four years.
Babis’s triumph was the triumph of discontent and Euroscepticism. Not surprisingly, the acronym anus means alliance of unhappy citizens in Czech and at the same time represent the word “yes.” With judicial scandals in between and in the face of the Czech political class, Babis capped the storm until 2021, forming in Europe a common front with Slovakia, Hungary and Poland, in frontal opposition to the Government of Brussels and with an undeniable affinity towards the Russia of Vladimir Putin.
Both predicament found Babis among Czech citizenship, which, by 2021, the European center-right parties had to form an alliance to defeat it. They got it for the hairs: anus got more seats although less votes than the Spolu Alliance, whose candidate, Petr Fialahe became Prime Minister, since he currently occupies … although he does not seem to be able to hold him for too long.
Between ultra -right and populism
Between Friday and Saturday, the Czechs are going to the polls to determine a new Parliament and Babis appears again as a favorite. The difference with respect to 2021 is that the government coalition has collapsed in the surveys: from almost 28% of that time, it would fall to 20%, which would place it very distant from anus, which aspires to exceed 30% of the votes for the first time.
Although these forecasts, next to the extreme right – the Freedom and Direct Democracy Party would be between 10 and 15% – exemplify the trend in the West of recent years, that is, the almost disappearance of social democracy and the difficulty of the traditional liberal and democratic parties to maintain hegemony in the spectrum of the parliamentary right, the truth is that Babis will not have it easy to form it.
The foreseeable fragmentation of the Czech Parliament, in which up to seven different games and coalitions can enter, from pirates to the drivers to the mayors, can make, even with a percentage higher than 2021, Babis gets less seats.
The latest survey published by the Czech subsidiary of the CNN It points to a slight downward trend, which would barely exceed 60 seats and stay at a couple of dots of the dream 30% of votes.
What does this mean? That a minority government will not be able to repeat and will have to agree. The problem is that the Europeanist parties – the aforementioned Spolu, the Social Democrats and the Pirate Party – will not want to know anything about it … and will have to look among the antisystem, which are all the others, including the coalition that is directly called “Enough!”.
Between the White House and the Kremlin
Of course, when reaching government pacts and occupying ministries, everyone softens their positions, but at the outset seems difficult to agree with so many people that the only thing they share is precisely their contempt for liberal democracy.
Surely, Russia will be with an eye on the final result, to see how you can benefit from it and get one more ally in the heart of the European Union and NATO.
That said, Babis, unlike Viktor Orban The Del Slovak Robert I amHe is a practical man. He knows where the limits are and knows the convenience of not crossing them. In case of forming a second government, it is likely to be decided more for not bothering Washington too much than to blatantly support Moscow. If Trump is still in his current position of praising Volodímir Zelenski And criticizing Putin, Babis is not likely to take the opposite.
Another thing would be in Brussels. Antieuropeism in the most oriental countries of the continent is increasing, with the Confederation of Freedom and Independence, a markedly antiucranian party, fired in Poland’s surveys.
The problem for them is that economic dependence is still great and it is difficult to find market for themselves. In other words, Prague and Warsaw are beautiful and imperial, but they are not London.
Be that as it may, it seems that the Czech Republic goes into a stage of chaos and chaos is the last thing Europe needs right now. Moldova resisted the Prorruse temptations despite all Kremlin’s efforts and we will have to see who more endures in the Europeanist ship. The GDP per capita of the Czechs has tripled in the twenty -one years that its country has been in the EU. Apparently, it is not enough. Or yes. On Sunday we will know.