The answer lies in how votes were spread. RJD seems to have polled a large number of second-position votes. It remained popular, but not with enough concentrated support in winning zones.
In simple terms, RJD got votes but not victories. This is no surprise in India’s electoral mechanism of ‘First Past the Post System.’
Seat maths
RJD contested 143 seats this time — the highest among all parties in both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. In 2020, the Lalu-led party had fielded 144 candidates.
Its wider contest helped it gather more total votes, resulting in the highest vote share. However, votes secured by losing candidates also inflate the overall share.
In contrast, the BJP and JD(U) contested 101 seats each. With fewer constituencies to cover, they translated their votes more efficiently into wins. This is why their seat tally rose sharply, even though their vote shares were lower than the RJD’s.A key factor in this election was the return of Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) to the NDA fold. In 2020, the LJP had weakened the NDA by eating into its vote share, but this time its support bolstered the alliance instead of dividing it. In the last assembly polls, LJP (RV) was upset with the NDA’s seat-sharing arrangement in Bihar. Although it remained part of the alliance at the Centre, Chirag Paswan chose to contest independently in the state, fielding candidates in 134 seats — a move that significantly hurt the NDA’s performance, particularly that of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U).
Similarly, Upendra Kushwaha’s party contested 104 seats independently in 2020, further cutting into votes that could have benefitted the NDA.
This time, with both LJP (RV) and Kushwaha’s RLM back in the NDA fold, the alliance appeared far more united, organised, and prepared. The result: NDA outperformed the Mahagathbandhan by a wide margin.
BJP grows bigger than ever
The BJP crossed 89 seats — its highest-ever tally in Bihar — marking a remarkable rise for a party that once had little grassroots presence or ideological footing in the state. After years of staying aligned with “sushasan babu” and gradually widening its reach, the saffron party has emerged as Bihar’s dominant political force.
With this mandate, the BJP has effectively redrawn the political map of Bihar. It now sits at the centre of power, holding the strongest bargaining position in the alliance. For years, Nitish Kumar played the “big brother” to the BJP, but for the second election in a row, the BJP has outperformed the JD(U), this time doing so with its best-ever numbers.
Unlike the NDA, the Mahagathbandhan grappled with poor coordination and lack of clarity.
The Congress contested 61 seats this time, down from 70, but managed to win only six. The Left parties, which had delivered an unexpected strong show in 2020, also failed to replicate that performance. Seat-sharing disputes and messy “friendly fights” prevented smooth vote transfer within the alliance.
The opposition was visible but not united — and unity decides tight contests.
Jan Suraaj and AIMIM changed the margins
Prashant Kishor’s much-discussed outfit, Jan Suraaj, failed to win a seat but made a notable impact. In at least 35 constituencies, its vote share exceeded the winning margin, influencing outcomes for both alliances.
AIMIM, meanwhile, repeated its strong show in Seemanchal, winning five seats with 1.85% of the vote and signalling a shift in political preferences among Muslim voters.
The RJD’s traditional Muslim–Yadav (MY) base also showed signs of strain, with a section of Muslim voters turning to alternative parties across several constituencies. This contributed to a near wipeout of the Mahagathbandhan in Seemanchal, except for one Congress candidate who narrowly won.
Mayawati’s BSP, too, made its presence felt, securing 1.62% of the vote share and one seat in western Bihar.