LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – Predicting bottoms in the crypto market is often deceptive, recent analysis shows. Despite Bitcoin’s recent losses and negative sentiment on social media, experts warn against jumping to conclusions. Historically, real lows often occur when the majority of market participants expect further losses.
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Predicting bottoms in the crypto market is a delicate undertaking that is often influenced by emotions and short-term trends. According to an analysis by the Santiment platform, the chances of a real bottom being reached are slim when many analysts and traders are predicting exactly this. This observation is based on the historical tendency that real lows often occur when the majority of market participants expect further losses.
This phenomenon has been evident again in the last few days, as the Bitcoin price briefly fell below the $95,000 mark. This move was accompanied by a general decline in technology stocks, leading many traders to declare the end of the downward move. Santiment, however, warns that such collective assessments are often overly optimistic and have often been followed by further price losses in the past.
Interestingly, prominent figures such as Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, have reiterated their bullish predictions for Bitcoin despite the negative sentiment. They expect that the Bitcoin price could rise to $200,000 or more by the end of the year. This discrepancy between general market sentiment and individual experts’ predictions shows how complex and unpredictable the crypto market can be.
Another aspect influencing the current market situation is the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. In the past few days, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.17 billion in outflows. Such moves are often interpreted as signs of retail panic selling, but could also indicate impending market stabilization. Historically, large outflows have often marked local bottoms, while large inflows have correlated with price spikes.
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