The Monroe Doctrine only gained its name later, but it was born from American President James Monroe’s speech in December 1823 warning against any attempt at European interference in the Western Hemisphere. At the time, there was a fear that the countries of the Holy Alliance, the coalition that had defeated Napoleon, would take the opportunity to try to help Spain recover its lost colonies, transformed into republics. And if the situation in Brazil was different, with a Bragança on the throne and married to a Habsburg woman to satisfy the Holy Alliance, the information about French ships on the Brazilian coast was enough to drag out the negotiations on the recognition of the new country a little, with John Quincy Adams, the Secretary of State, asking for clarification about the real intentions of Emperor D. Pedro I, before Monroe opened the doors of the White House to the envoy Silvestre Rebelo and thus formalized the establishment of diplomatic relations. The restored Bourbon France had joined Austria, Russia and Prussia in this conservative European coalition, determined to eliminate any trace of the French Revolution of 1789, while Great Britain, which at Waterloo had dealt the definitive blow to Napoleonic ambitions, had demarcated itself.
Monroe delivered a speech that had much of Adams’ thinking behind it, an experienced diplomat who would be his successor. But the United States at that time, about to celebrate half a century, hardly had any real power to stop the Holy Alliance. Adams knew that the powerful British navy would do so if necessary. And that allowed Monroe to make the warning, with conviction.
Donald Trump today presides over a much more powerful United States, which in 2026 will celebrate 250 years since the Declaration of Independence, the famous 4th of July. And so what the new American strategy says about the Western Hemisphere is to be taken very seriously. America, which at the end of the 19th century did everything to keep the Spanish away from the Caribbean, supporting Cuba’s independence and annexing Puerto Rico; America, which during the Cold War did everything it could to overthrow regimes friendly to the Soviet Union, only failing in the Cuban case; That same America now wants to limit China’s influence in Latin America, especially in South America. And what’s left of Russia, equally, it must be said.
In the space of one or two decades, China has established itself as the main trading partner in several Latin American countries, overtaking the United States. The success of the One Belt, One Road initiative has been tremendous, and with economic ties also come political ties. More recently, China also sought to capture countries in the region that traditionally had relations with Taiwan, such as Panama or the Dominican Republic, into its sphere of influence, and with success.
When the Trump Corollary of the Monroe Doctrine is mentioned, the allusion is to the beginning of the 20th century, with the Roosevelt Corollary. It was a time when the United States, still young but with growing strength, imposed its will on the Southern neighborhood, sometimes with the carrot, sometimes with the stick. There are interesting cartoons from the time showing Teddy Roosevelt with the carrot and the stick.
It is not known whether it will be with the carrot or the stick that Trump will impose his vision of a reliable Americas on Washington, which combats illegal emigration routes and drug flows. There are leaders for whom the carrot seems to work well, such as Nayib Bukele, from El Salvador, or Argentina’s Javier Milei, who established personal relationships with the American president and put their countries to benefit from American goodwill. The Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro is clearly seen as an illegitimate leader by Trump, who supports the opposition leader María Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner. And the military actions against boats involved in drug trafficking, which depart from Venezuelan territory, show the American determination to face old problems, such as the role of drug gangs. In the last few hours, the United States confirmed the seizure of an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, which could bring even more tension to the relationship between Washington and Caracas. There has also been tension between Trump and Gustavo Petro, the former guerrilla fighter who is described as Colombia’s first left-wing president. And once again the exchange of accusations has as its backdrop the drug issue, which is tragic in producing countries, but equally dramatic for the United States, which is the big market, where there are consumers whose dollars enrich the cartels. However, if Venezuela has been viewed with suspicion since the times of Hugo Chávez, the ideologue of Bolivarianism, Colombia is a traditional ally of the United States, to the point of being the only country in Latin America that is a global partner of NATO, a restricted club that includes, among others, Japan, South Korea and Australia.
We know how the Monroe Doctrine resulted after the 1823 speech. What followed the Roosevelt Corollary is also in the history books. For better or for worse, the United States became increasingly stronger and the so-called back yard accommodated itself. Trump now talks about American leadership, but also about shared development. The new national security strategy, with regard to the Western Hemisphere, promises clear advantages for those on the American side. The competition with the Chinese will be tough, but geography, history and culture play in the United States’ favor.
Deputy Director of Diário de Notícias