The cold front season has already begun in Mexico, although not in winter. But although fewer phenomena of this type are predicted, that does not mean that the cold will be less. These are the climate projections in the country:
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported that For the 2025-2026 season, 48 cold fronts are expected to enter Mexican territory, a figure lower than the historical average of 50 systems..
Although the number is low, authorities warned that The intensity of each event will depend on the strength and origin of the polar air masses that accompany them..
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The season began in September 2025 and will conclude in May 2026. According to the National Water Commission (Conagua), The busiest months will be December and January, with up to seven fronts each.while November and March will register six. In February, April and September (last) between four and five systems are expected, and the season will close in May with three.
“The Boy” and “The Girl”
The SMN explained that this winter will be influenced by the transition phase of the “El Niño” phenomenon—southern oscillation (ENSO)— to a weak “La Niña”, which will favor a drier climate and minimum temperatures between 1°C and 3°C above average..
However, In mountainous areas of the north and center of the country, there could be marked drops below -5°C, mainly in Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas and the State of Mexico..
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Besides, The frontal systems are expected to cause winter storms, frost and strong gusts of wind in northern and northeastern regions, as well as rain in the Gulf of Mexico and the east of the country..
Conagua warned that climate variability associated with global warming modifies the frequency and intensity of these phenomenaso constant monitoring and prevention measures will be key in the coming months.
Rains in Mexico
Meanwhile, very heavy occasional rains will prevail in 10 states of the Mexican Republic and temperatures of -10 to -5 degrees in the mountain areas of another 20 entities.predicted the SMN.
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The SMN daily report indicates that very heavy occasional rains, of 50 to 75 millimeters (mm), will fall in the regions of Quintana Roo (north and coast) and Yucatán (north and east); the strong ones, from 25 to 50 mm, in areas of Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca regions), Oaxaca (east), Chiapas (north), Tabasco (west and center) and Campeche (southwest).
In addition, intervals of showers, from 5 to 25 mm, in areas of Puebla (Tehuacán-Sierra Negra region), Veracruz (mountains and Papaloapan regions), Michoacán and Guerrero, as well as isolated rains, from 0.1 to 5 mm, in Jalisco, Colima, Puebla (Sierra Nororiental and Valle Serdán regions) and Veracruz (Huasteca Baja and Totonaca regions).
Greater intensity rainfall could generate landslides, an increase in the levels of rivers and streams, as well as overflows and flooding in low areas of the aforementioned states, while strong gusts of wind could cause trees to fall and advertisements, indicated the body of the National Water Commission (Conagua).
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Besides, The very strong northerly event will prevail with gusts of 70 to 80 kilometers per hour (km/h) in the regions of Oaxaca and Chiapas (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec); Wind gusts of 40 to 55 km/h are also expected in the morning on the coasts of Veracruz (south), Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, as well as gusts of 35 to 50 km/h in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Tlaxcala and the State of Mexico.
Consequently, waves of 2.5 to 3.5 meters (m) high are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and waves of 1.5 to 2.5 m high are expected on the western coast of the Baja California peninsula and on the coasts of Veracruz (south), Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, decreasing in the afternoon.
The conditions described will be generated by frontal system number 12 that will extend with stationary characteristics over the Yucatan peninsula and the Campeche probe, its cold air mass, tropical wave number 40 that will approach Quintana Roo, a cyclonic circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico, a low pressure channel and the entry of humidity from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.
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