Türkiye: Peace with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or an export of its dilemma? | policy

Announcing the withdrawal of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and new signs of peace

Last month, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party announced the withdrawal of its forces from Türkiye to northern Iraq, in a new gesture within the current peace process with Ankara.

Although the organization has no longer had an actual armed presence inside Turkish territory for some time, and was forced under the pressure of Turkish military operations to concentrate its presence in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, and to a lesser extent in northeastern Syria, this announcement raises a fundamental question about the nature of the new peace process, and whether it will lead to actual peace between Turkey and the Labor Party, or export its dilemma to neighboring countries.

Turkey’s failure to address the fundamental reasons that led to the failure of previous peace processes with the PKK, including addressing its presence in neighboring countries, cannot produce a sustainable peace, even if it is able to hold out for a period of time.

The dilemma of the party’s regional presence and its impact on the peace process

In the history of the conflict, the presence of the Labor Party and its branches in Syria and Iraq has been a major obstacle to reaching a final peace. Ankara has realized, after long decades of conflict, that undermining the Labor Party’s ability to continue its rebellion against it cannot be achieved without depriving it of finding a safe haven in neighboring countries.

Currently, the presence of the Workers’ Party in northern Iraq, and the status of the Syrian Democratic Forces linked to it ideologically and even organically, constitute a major obstacle to the success of the new peace process.

However, this time Ankara is adopting a different approach than its previous approach in approaching the conflict with the PKK, by framing the new peace within the framework of addressing its situation in neighboring countries.

The new Turkish approach and cooperation with neighboring countries

Although it is difficult to completely dismantle the party’s ability to position itself in Syria and Iraq due to its influence on the regional Kurdish situation, Turkey’s assertion that ending the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, including addressing its presence in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, dismantling the SDF in Syria, and ending its so-called self-administration, gives an image of the new approach that seems realistic and more capable of moving the relationship between Turkey and the Kurds to a stage of sustainable peace.

However, Ankara remains skeptical about the long-term efficacy of this approach. On the one hand, it is pushing to revive the Adana Agreement with Syria, and expand its scope in a way that allows it to launch military incursions to combat any future activity of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Syria to a depth of 30 kilometers, instead of the 5 kilometers stipulated in the original agreement.

On the other hand, Ankara is working to deepen its security and intelligence cooperation with Erbil and the Iraqi central government in Baghdad. To prevent the PKK from renewing its activity in northern Iraq in the future, and to ensure the dismantling of its military structure, and the complete disarmament of its weapons, or the heavy ones that could pose a threat to Turkey.

A comprehensive vision for addressing the Kurdish situation

In parallel with this approach, Ankara adopts a comprehensive vision to address this dilemma, by contributing to producing an environment that undermines the PKK’s ability to exploit the Kurdish situation in neighboring countries to renew its armed activity.

This vision includes urging the new Syrian government to integrate the Syrian Kurds into the state, recognize them as an authentic component, and include them in state institutions.

For Iraq, the main dilemma in producing such an environment is dealing with the fate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party leaders and militants present in the Qandil Mountains.

This treatment will be based on the political and legal path in the parliamentary committee that was recently formed in the Turkish National Assembly, to settle the situation of these leaders and militants, either by pardoning them and allowing them to return to Turkey, or by deporting them or some of them to third countries.

Regional dimensions and potential challenges

Unlike Syria and Iraq, Turkish cooperation with Iran in the Kurdish situation appears limited, given Iranian investment over the years in the Kurdish situation in Syria and Iraq, in the context of competition with Ankara.

However, engaging Tehran in the new peace process, to include addressing the link between the Iranian Kurdish situation and the PKK, remains a necessity to maximize the chances of success of the new peace process.

Any failure by Turkey to address the fundamental reasons that led to the failure of previous peace processes with the PKK, including addressing its presence in neighboring countries, cannot produce a sustainable peace, even if it is able to hold out for a period of time.

Cooperation with neighboring countries, especially Syria and Iraq, in the new peace process is pivotal to its success. Fortunately, the political transformation in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and the presence of a current government in Iraq that is more understanding of Turkey’s concerns about the presence of the Workers’ Party within Iraqi territory, create an environment for tripartite cooperation that can help achieve a sustainable peace between Turkey and the Workers’ Party, and reshape and redefine the regional Kurdish situation.

In conclusion, the established truth in this issue is that the interests of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria converge in cooperation that addresses the legitimate concerns of these countries regarding the armed Kurdish situation within their territories, and that any export of the PKK’s dilemma to neighboring countries will not contribute to addressing these concerns, nor to producing a sustainable Turkish-Kurdish peace.