The rating agency HR Ratings ratified the rating of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) at “HR AAA”, with a stable outlook on the local long-term scale, and maintained the “HR+1” rating for the short term. Meanwhile, it confirmed the “HR BBB+ (G)” grade on the global scale, improving its outlook from negative to stable. both for the company and for 29 of its current emissions.
According to the agency, this decision reflects the recurring support of the federal government, through contributions for debt service, capital investments and tax reductions, in addition to the strategic relevance of Pemex as a source of income for the country. HR Ratings specified that the action replicates the recent improvement applied to Mexico’s sovereign rating, announced on October 28, 2025.
The firm recalled that Pemex closed 2024 with an annual drop of 2.7% in total revenue, due to lower crude oil exports, which were not offset by the increase in domestic sales. However, as of the second quarter of 2025, total debt in pesos was reduced by 5.7% compared to the end of 2024, driven by the exchange rate effect, although in dollars it registered an increase of 1.2%, to stand at 98.8 billion. Meanwhile, net debt advanced 0.5% to 93.7 billion dollars.
In his review, HR Ratings projected an average price of the Mexican Mixture of 62.02 dollars per barrel in 2025, 12.2% lower than the 2024 average, and an average of 58.83 dollars between 2024 and 2026. Likewise, it estimated an average crude oil production, including partners and condensates, of one million 408 thousand barrels per day between 2025 and 2027, below the one million 759 thousand barrels reported in 2024.
The rating agency predicts that Pemex’s net debt will close at 1.58 trillion pesos in 2025, and that it will be around 1.04 trillion in 2026 and 1.42 trillion in 2027. in line with the Government’s objective of maintaining net debt close to zero.
HR Ratings warned that a reduction in government support or a change in Mexico’s sovereign rating could directly impact Pemex’s rating, due to its consideration as a de facto guarantee from the State. The review, he added, incorporated current corporate and sovereign methodologies and evaluated historical and projected company information from 2011 to the second quarter of 2025.