After a war that lasted two years and did not stop except with a brutal intervention by US President Donald Trump and on the basis of saving Israel from itself in the face of the entire world, the Israelis find themselves facing increasing possibilities of resorting to early elections early next year.
The reason for this is not only the war and its social and political consequences, but also a deep crisis of confidence not only between the public and the government, but also between the army and the government, within the government coalition, and in the political arena in general.
The movements and positions of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court, indicate that he is moving according to a clear program towards early elections, and that he has actually begun his electoral campaign. Among the results of this approach was the necessity of accepting the Sharm El-Sheikh Agreement, which stipulated the end of the war and laid the foundations for negotiating permanent solutions.
In fact, the success of the Sharm El-Sheikh negotiations according to the Trump plan, despite their importance, was not the only factor behind the move towards early elections. The political reality created by the war, its length, its political, social and economic effects, and Israel’s position in the world in general, and among the Jews in the diaspora in particular, were an effective factor.
The former Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, acknowledged that the recklessness of the Netanyahu government, on the one hand, exposed the very existence of Israel to doubt in the world, and undermined the confidence of many, even Jews, in it.
Approval of the general budget also sets a timetable that is difficult to ignore, especially in conditions of lack of general consensus on the course of matters. It is clear that the elections this time are different from previous ones, not only because of the war, but also because of the conflict over the nature of the state between the right and the center, and Israel’s image in the world.
As happens in many countries, the fact that Israel is at a decisive crossroads does not mean that it will have to resolve internal conflicts in one election.
It may take several elections and enough time before the picture becomes clear and disputes over the identity of the government and the image of the state are resolved. It is sufficient to point out the fact that the last government was formed after the elections failed several times to resolve matters, and after paralysis had struck many forums in the political arena.
As soon as the current right-wing coalition was formed, its leaders began implementing what was called the “constitutional coup.” To decide the rules of governance in their favor, which sparked the largest demonstrations that continued even after the outbreak of the October 7 war.
There are those who believe that the early elections will be historic in any case, at least because they take place three years before the last elections in January 2023, which took place after a previous election in November 2022.
It is obvious that an electoral campaign during a war or a truce after a war that has been going on for more than two years will not be easy, especially since the manifestations of dissent and evasion of democratic rules and adherence to the law are clear. This is evidenced, for example, by the tendency of ministers like Ben Gvir to violate the law in many matters, including prayer on the Temple Mount, which is prohibited by Israeli law and by most rabbis of the Jewish religion.
After concluding the Sharm El-Sheikh Agreement, Netanyahu entered a politically and diplomatically sensitive phase, against the backdrop that concluding the deal will determine the political timetable for the coming months, which will also change the map of powers around the government table.
Despite the silence of both Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s parties on the deal so far; Desiring not to spoil the ceremony sponsored by America and celebrated by the majority of Israelis, this silence will not last.
It is possible that Trump’s visit and his speech in the Knesset were primarily aimed at preventing the Israeli political arena from sliding toward rapid disintegration. Trump is concerned with maintaining the momentum of the agreement as long as possible, and this requires that Israel not fall into a spiral of internal conflicts.
It is known that the “Otzma Yehudit” party, led by Ben Gvir, set a clear red line: If Hamas remains after the end of the war, it will withdraw from the government. While the religious Zionism led by Smotrich avoids making public threats, it is clear that it will be difficult to support any agreement that goes beyond the exchange of prisoners, that is, the first phase of the Sharm El-Sheikh agreement and on the condition of no withdrawal or making fundamental concessions.
Experts in Israeli internal affairs believe that Netanyahu stands these days at the heart of a complex equation: An important diplomatic step against Hamas may give him international support, but it may dismantle the political alliances that hold Netanyahu’s government together. The test for Netanyahu is not limited to the success of the deal, but also includes the extent to which he is able to maintain his control over the political arena the next day.
One of Netanyahu’s closest advisors and his former chief of staff, Natan Eshel, had said that by the time the elections come, everyone will have forgotten the disaster of October 7. According to the Zaman Israel website, this was not an impulsive statement, nor a statement coming from Eshel’s fevered mind – rather, this was Netanyahu’s strategy two years ago, during which he deliberately prolonged the war.
This was the reason for his repeated attempts to remove the word October 7 from the forefront, and to give other names without much success, such as the “Renaissance War” or the “Seven Fronts War,” and that in the period remaining until the elections, he will do his best – including everything – to tell you that he saved Israel in the past two years, and that he was the one who succeeded, despite everything, in achieving victory alone: The failure of the Israeli army, Military intelligence fell, the Shin Bet security service collapsed, the Supreme Court was damaged, and the prime minister’s legal advisor became a slave – but only he succeeded. Elections will be held in a few months, and he will not give up trying to cover up the horrific disaster that occurred two years ago.
It seems that Netanyahu’s government coalition was shocked by Trump’s hasty steps and statements, so it chose to remain silent not only because of Netanyahu’s clear demand to his ministers to do so, but also because of the requirements of the moment. But all coalition members know what’s behind the sleeve.
According to the Maariv newspaper, Netanyahu asked one of his Likud ministers to verify the institutional and legal aspects required to open a rapid electoral process, and to find out how the mechanisms of the Center and the Internal Elections Committee could be operated in a very short time.
Among other things, the possibility of merging the Likud Party primaries with the party conference elections, which are scheduled to be held on November 24. This step – if implemented – may give Netanyahu a renewal of internal leadership, instill internal unity, and neutralize any attempt to resume his leadership from the party.
Likud officials estimate that “this is an exercise on the ground to present the general elections, against the backdrop of the exchange deal and the entire deal for US President Donald Trump, as a first step towards peace in the Middle East.”
According to them, Netanyahu wants to determine his status even before the regime enters a political spiral, to take advantage of the natural growth in support for Likud after an agreement that returns all the kidnapped people to the homeland.
According to a senior Likud official: “Netanyahu wants to capitalize on popular momentum around the swap deal, with the public feeling positive toward him, and at the same time when the coalition is shaking from within.
Netanyahu is basing his attempts to speed up the holding of early elections on the fact that opinion polls began to change their direction towards him after the agreement. The latest opinion poll published by Maariv showed that the Sharm el-Sheikh agreement did well for Netanyahu and harmed opponents of the deal.
According to the director of the polls, Dr. Menachem Lazar, “Those who are considered in the public consciousness to be opposed to the deal – Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben Gvir – have declined significantly. As for religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, who also opposes the deal, it has failed to pass the electoral threshold again.”
According to the poll, “Likud rose by two seats, but it appears that its rise is mainly due to the loss of the right-wing – Jewish power.” Dr. Lazar believes that the big question is: What will happen after the deal is completed?
“It could go in any direction. On the one hand, the Likud party might strengthen, in light of the international agreements it might have with other Muslim countries. But on the other hand, the high price of the deal, which includes the release of many prisoners with blood on their hands, and the continued presence of Hamas as an important factor in the Gaza Strip – might actually weaken Likud.”
In other words, Netanyahu today has something to bet on, after comprehensive loss was the title of his life. A report on Israeli television referred to Netanyahu’s reasoning in these terms: “In the beginning, in the first few weeks after October 7, when the military campaign was still in its infancy, Netanyahu told his advisors the following: In the near future we will be attacked from all directions and from every decision we make. Both from the right and from the left. That is why I give you the following direction: only the final result. All attacks are in the wrong direction.” Not important at all. Finally, we will look at one other thing – whether we achieve the result we promised or fail. How long will it take، There will be bumps.” Netanyahu declared himself victorious, and he wants the street to reward him, not hold him accountable and punish him.
Today, Netanyahu presents himself as not only “Mr. Security” nor “Mr. Economy,” but also as “the capable father” who can open up to his opponents and achieve the unity of the people through a new conscription law and steps to revive the economy and restore internal and external confidence in the Hebrew state.
Therefore, he says that he is able to pass the general budget before the end of next March, and if he is not able to do so, then he will dissolve the Knesset and hold early elections. The prevailing belief is that Netanyahu will try to postpone the dissolution of the Knesset until the last minute, with a tendency to dissolve it himself instead of having to do so.
It is known that on October 19, the winter session of the Knesset will open, and the coalition, aware of the possibility of early elections, is preparing to “clean the table” as quickly as possible, and accelerate the enactment of laws that serve the parties of this coalition in the hope of running in the elections under better conditions.
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