Published On 6/11/2025
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Last update: 20:32 (Mecca time)
The Lebanese arena is witnessing a new military phase that is radically different from what preceded it, after Hezbollah’s recent statement. At a time when Israel continues its concentrated air strikes south of the Litani River, amid military estimates that the Lebanese party will return to confrontation.
The military and strategic expert, Brigadier General Elias Hanna, believes that Hezbollah’s statement represents the greatest transformation at the current stage, especially since it is directed to the three presidents (President of the Republic Joseph Aoun, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam).
Hezbollah confirmed – today, Thursday – that the issue of arms exclusivity is not being discussed in response to a foreign request, but rather within a national Lebanese framework, warning against slipping into negotiating traps that achieve gains for Israel, and stressed its right to resist the occupation alongside the army and the people.
Based on this transformation, Hanna stressed – during the military analysis section – that the political decision must be accompanied by military readiness, stressing that “rejecting everything requires complete preparedness.”
He pointed out that the Israeli military escalation coincided with the party’s statement, noting that the Israeli targets target everything south of the Litani, including military leaders, whether on bicycles or cars.
In this context, Hanna touched on a statistic that he described as important, showing that 47% of the targeting since the ceasefire was concentrated in the south of the Litani, compared to 37% in its north, and 16% in the Bekaa region.
The military expert attributed this to the fact that heavy weapons with a strategic range are located in remote areas, while the operational composition of a command and control system, anti-armor weapons, and Katyusha missiles is located in the closer areas.
Based on this distribution, he expected that the next phase would witness the use of anti-armor weapons and Katyushas at close ranges ranging between 8 and 12 kilometers, in operations he described as “an inconvenience and not as it was in the support phase.”
At the level of the field equation, Hanna confirmed that Hezbollah’s security system changed after the occupation army entered 5 points and remained there, explaining that the party is no longer able to fight the war that it intended to fight, and it cannot start from the old places because they have become exposed.
According to the military expert, two weeks ago, Israel conducted a maneuver for the 91st Division simulating the battle of the Radwan Force entering Israel and absorbing the attack and then the counterattack, stressing that the party is trying to change the equation through a different command and control structure.
On the other hand, Hanna revealed a new strategic approach that Israel will adopt after October 7, 2023, which is based on the fact that “attack is the best means of defence,” explaining that the five points it entered are the topographically highest areas overlooking the settlements to protect them.
In this context, he explained that Israel created new rules of engagement requiring attacks against targets despite the ceasefire agreement, pointing out that Israel’s biggest concern is Katyushas, not long-range missiles.
This evening, the Israeli army launched a series of air strikes on the towns of Tayr Dibba, Taibe, Ayta al-Jabal, and Zawtar al-Sharqiya (southern Lebanon) after warning residents of the towns in the region to evacuate, in the widest warning since the ceasefire in November 2024.
The effectiveness of the international mechanism
Regarding the effectiveness of international mechanisms, Hanna called for realism regarding the American monitoring center, pointing out that the Gaza Strip includes 20 points and a basic center and Israel is still violating the agreement, explaining that the five-year mechanism differs from UN Resolution No. 1701.
As for the role of the Lebanese state, Hanna stressed that the army “cannot be used in direct combat with Israel, nor internally against Hezbollah,” describing it as “a blessing and a curse,” as it is considered a blessing in the current situation and a curse because it is unable to protect the state due to the sectarian and sectarian structure.
The Lebanese army also used all its explosives to blow up the infrastructure south of the Litani, noting that President Aoun’s directive to the army to respond aims to “absorb the situation, but it is not capable of direct war.”
In light of this, Lebanon faces three challenges – according to the military expert – which are: how to respond militarily to Hezbollah, the role of the Lebanese army, and how the state will behave in the next stage.