Istanbul Talks: Where is the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan headed? | policy

cable- Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are experiencing one of their most tense stages, after the Istanbul talks that lasted for 5 days faltered without reaching an agreement on a long-term truce between the two countries.

While Kabul speaks of the need for “mutual respect for sovereignty,” Islamabad warns of “open war” if talks with Afghanistan fail, according to the words of Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif.

Asif’s recent statements in which he threatened “open war” sparked widespread regional concern and condemnation. The Pakistani army, despite its military capabilities, realizes that entering into a comprehensive confrontation with Afghanistan means opening a long and complex front, at a time when the country faces internal economic challenges and increasing political pressures.

“Insurmountable” demands

Afghan government spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, told Al Jazeera Net, “We went to Istanbul to discuss mutual security arrangements, but the Pakistani side wanted unilateral commitments, and this is unacceptable to any sovereign country. How is Pakistan asking us to control a movement that was established before we came to power in 2007, and it is a purely Pakistani problem that we have nothing to do with, neither from near nor far.”

Afghan affairs experts believe that the second round of negotiations between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Istanbul moved forward positively, but the Pakistani demand regarding the Pakistani Taliban movement made the negotiations falter, and had the efforts of Turkey and Qatar been loyal, they would have failed because the positions of the two parties were far apart from the beginning.

Experts believe that the Pakistani Taliban movement is the main reason for the faltering of the Istanbul talks between Kabul and Islamabad. The Afghan government blames the Pakistani side for the escalation of the matter, and announced through a senior official that Kabul tried to mediate between the Pakistani Taliban and Islamabad, but Pakistani parties opposed implementing the terms of the agreement.

Former Afghan Defense Minister Shah Mahmoud Miyakhil told Al Jazeera Net, “The Afghan Taliban movement made a promise to itself in the Doha Agreement not to use Afghan lands against others. When we see the situation with its neighbors such as Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and China, we see that it is adhering to its promises.”

He added, “Islamabad’s demand that the Afghan government fight the Pakistani Taliban is an impossible request. Even if it wanted to, it cannot implement it.”

As for the Undersecretary of the Afghan Ministry of Interior, Muhammad Nabi Omari, he said, “Two years ago, we hosted the official Pakistani delegation and representatives of the Pakistani Taliban in Kabul, and many matters were agreed upon, the most important of which was a ceasefire in the tribal areas.”

He added to Al Jazeera Net, “After the return of the Pakistani delegation, the army announced the start of a military operation against the Pakistani Taliban. There is a group in Pakistan that does not want stability in the region, and now we have nothing to do with what is happening inside Pakistani territory.”

dense tension

The recent clashes are not new in the border scene between the two countries. The “Durand Line,” which extends for more than 2,600 kilometers, has been the scene of clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan for decades, but what happened after the Taliban came to power was a precedent in the history of relations with Pakistan. The problem is not the result of the moment, but rather is an extension of a long conflict over the border.

The Durand Line was always a point of contention, but after 2021, when the Taliban returned to power, the balance of power changed, and Pakistan was no longer the dominant party as in the past.

Former Undersecretary of the Ministry of Interior, Khushal Sadat, told Al Jazeera Net, “Afghan forces launched a military attack in seven states located on the Durand Line with Pakistan. It did not occur to anyone. This means that relations between the two parties have reached a dead end, and I do not think that the current truce will last long.”

For his part, the writer and political researcher, Jamil Al-Kouzi, said in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that “Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, Pakistan has hoped that the new Afghan government would be a security ally, but what happened was the opposite, as the Taliban emerged from the Pakistani cloak and it came to the point that it opened diplomatic and economic channels with India, which Pakistan considers a sworn adversary.”

The visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Mottaki, to India sparked the situation, and Pakistan resorted to bombing the capital, Kabul, in conjunction with his visit.

War and its effects

Political analyst Abdul Hakim Ander told Al Jazeera Net, “Pakistan uses the language of escalation for political pressure more than actual preparation for war,” adding that “the two countries know that war is not a winning option for either party.”

Ander adds that what fears the Taliban is that Pakistan will exploit the “international cover to combat terrorism” to justify its strikes deep inside Afghanistan, which Kabul considers a direct violation of its sovereignty.

Tensions quickly affected the commercial crossings between the two countries, as the Pakistani authorities closed all their border crossings with Afghanistan 19 days ago, causing hundreds of trucks to accumulate on both sides of the border, in addition to waiting for thousands of refugees who want to return to Afghanistan.

Abdul Jalil Qayyum, a member of the Afghan Chambers of Commerce, told Al Jazeera Net, “After the closure of the main crossings between the two countries, the resulting direct economic losses exceeded 122.5 million US dollars, and with every day that passes since the closure, the Afghan people will incur greater economic costs.”

Scenarios

According to Afghan affairs experts, three main scenarios can be drawn for the future of the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan in light of the current situation and the Istanbul talks:

• Resuming negotiations through new mediation: Turkish-Qatari mediation may push a new round of discussions to be held in the coming weeks if the two parties reduce the tone of escalation. This is an existing possibility, but it is fragile unless it is accompanied by international guarantees.
• Freezing the status quo: A temporary ceasefire continues without a comprehensive agreement, with border skirmishes and mutual accusations remaining. This scenario seems the most realistic in the near term.
• The return of military escalation. In the event of new attacks inside Pakistan attributed to armed groups, Islamabad may resort to limited strikes inside Afghan territory, which may open the door to a mutual escalation that threatens to turn the conflict into an open war.