LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – OPEC+’s upcoming decision on a possible increase in oil production in December is the focus of the global energy industry. Despite sanctions, Russian oil exports continue to flow unhindered, putting market participants on alert. Recent inventory data from the US provides only temporary relief as global production expansion outpaces demand recovery.
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OPEC+’s upcoming decision on a possible increase in oil production in December is the focus of the global energy industry. Market observers expect the cartel to consider a moderate increase in production of around 137,000 barrels per day. This move would signal confidence in the group’s reserve capacity and underline its claim to market share, particularly given continued Russian exports and the waning impact of sanctions.
The sanctions against Russian oil companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil have proven largely symbolic. Despite initial price increases due to fears about possible disruptions to global oil flows, exports have remained largely uninterrupted. Countries like India and China paused their purchases only briefly, while Lukoil divested international assets and used shadow fleets to secure market access.
In the US, recent inventory data provided near-term support. The EIA reported a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories of 6.86 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories also fell sharply. However, this positive surprise failed to have a lasting impact on the overall market situation as traders remained focused on the risks of oversupply, compounded by weak economic signals from China and a stronger US dollar.
Concerns about oversupply grew after data showed global producers added over 2.7 million barrels per day in recent months, about 2.5% of global production. Saudi Arabia notably increased exports in August to a six-month high of 6.407 million barrels per day, with further increases forecast for December. At the same time, US crude oil production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day, further exacerbating the structural imbalance in the market.
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