Analysts: The provision of “rapid support” increases fears of the division of Sudan policy

Fears of the division of Sudan and the disintegration of its territorial integrity are increasing, in light of the advance of the Rapid Support Forces and their control over the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State, and the confrontations moving to North Kordofan, amid the displacement of thousands of civilians and the commission of widespread violations.

Sudan faces a double challenge between the risks of division, humanitarian violations, and the impact of regional and international interventions, at a time when the future of the crisis remains open between urgent political solutions or a greater escalation in the fighting, amid humanitarian and strategic risks extending to neighboring countries.

Writer and political analyst Diaa El-Din Bilal believed that the “Rapid Support” seeks to capitalize on its victory in El Fasher to expand its operations in North Kordofan, benefiting from external support that includes weapons and mercenaries from several countries.

According to Bilal’s talk on the “Beyond the News” program, this “militia is trying to repeat the scenario of kidnapping the Sudanese state,” expressing his conviction that fears of dividing Sudan exist.

The Rapid Support Forces seek to “cut off parts of Darfur and Kordofan to serve as pressure cards in future negotiations, inspired by the Libyan model, which increases the risks to Sudan’s unity.”

Imposing a fait accompli

In the same context, Sudanese writer and political researcher Muhammad Torshin expressed his conviction that formal division and international recognition are out of the question, as no single authority can declare secession.

But Torshin indicated that division on the ground is possible, indicating that the Rapid Support field control over areas such as Al-Fasher and others may impose a reality resembling division, which will be exploited in negotiations in the future.

On the ground, security and military sources told Al Jazeera that the Rapid Support Forces took control of the town of Al-Zariba and the “Umm Dam Haj Ahmed” locality in North Kordofan state, a day after they announced the extension of control over the city of El Fasher.

In this context, Sudanese Prime Minister Kamel Idris told Al Jazeera that what is happening in El Fasher constitutes war crimes and ethnic cleansing.

In light of this, temporary solutions such as a ceasefire will not be sufficient and will not solve the crisis radically, and continued foreign interventions may lead to a prolongation or escalation of the war, according to Torshin.

The Rapid Support is also trying to “consolidate its influence in strategic areas such as El Fasher, giving it the ability to exert pressure and expand control over other areas, which may complicate any future negotiating path.”

Possibility of solution

As for the ability of the African Union to intervene and resolve the crisis, African affairs expert Noureddine Abda said that the Union is following the crisis with concern, but its capacity is limited, and he urged its inclusion in the negotiation processes to ensure a balancing role, especially in light of the dominance of the United States, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Egypt over international mediation efforts.

According to Abda, the African role remains necessary “to ensure an internal Sudanese consensus that protects stability and limits external influence on the conflict.”

On the other hand, Diaa El-Din Bilal asserts that the international community has not taken strong positions to confront violations against civilians, and has often contented itself with condemnations, and this strengthens the influence of Rapid Support.

But he stressed that the Sudanese army is capable of regaining control over Darfur and El Fasher, based on its previous achievements in other regions of the country, despite external support for the Rapid Support Forces.

Since mid-April 2023, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces have been waging a war that has resulted in the deaths of more than 20,000 people and the displacement and asylum of about 15 million, according to the United Nations and local authorities, while a study prepared by American universities estimated the death toll at about 130,000.