LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – Bitcoin has experienced significant depreciation in recent weeks, resulting in a rare underperformance compared to the Nasdaq. According to experts, this market situation offers an attractive opportunity for long-term investors as current prices do not reflect fundamental values.
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Bitcoin has seen a remarkable 36% depreciation from its all-time highs in recent weeks. This development is described by K33 as a sentiment-driven overshoot that creates an attractive long-term entry opportunity. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, highlights that Bitcoin underperformed the Nasdaq in 70% of trading sessions last month. This rare constellation has only been observed a few times since 2020.
Historically, such periods of Bitcoin underperformance versus the Nasdaq have occurred during specific crypto shocks, such as the Mt. Gox collapse or the German government sales in July 2024. The massive Grayscale outflows in January 2024 and the contagion effects in June 2022 were also such times. These events led to a weakening of correlations, which Lunde considers significant for the current market situation.
Bitcoin’s recent decline in relative strength began with a deleveraging event on October 10, which sent its price relative to the QQQ index to its lowest level since November 2024. This development has erased all relative gains since the US election and pushed Bitcoin below key 2021 and early 2024 levels. Despite these challenges, Lunde sees Bitcoin’s market structure today as significantly different than in previous cycles, particularly with initiatives from Tier 1 banks and upcoming political catalysts.
The current market situation is highlighted by extreme trading activity during the price plunge to an intraday low of $80,500 on November 21st. On the day, spot volumes reached $14.3 billion, the sixth highest volume of 2025. These volumes indicate intense demand on the buy side, but so far this has only resulted in temporary relief. Lunde emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current prices compared to other risk assets represent a significant disconnect with the underlying fundamentals and therefore Bitcoin should be viewed as a strong relative buy for long-term investors.
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