Russia is not negotiating. Russia is trying to politically and diplomatically defeat Ukraine and its European allies on the physical and digital carpet away from the mud on the front lines.
And, given Europe’s strategic incapacity, perhaps it will succeed.
And that is without Russia managing to prevail on the battlefield. After almost four years of war and despite the punishment inflicted on the civilian population, it has failed to break either Ukraine’s capacity for resistance or its will to fight. And that is the key variable that leads to victory or defeat in war.
Not to mention that, seen in perspective, its territorial advance since the spring of 2022 is meager and, although it is a variable without political costs for Putinat a brutal human price. Russian casualties, between deaths and serious injuries, are already at a magnitude that is around, and perhaps exceeds, one million.
But the Kremlin, through its well-oiled machinery of agitation and influence in the West and which includes dozens of YouTubers, influencers and trolls of different pelts has managed to establish in the public conversation that Russia’s victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
It is neither, nor is it close to being produced.
But, contrary to what is often stated, data does not kill a story, so that narrative continues to poison the Euro-Atlantic public conversation.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, welcomes the Secretary of the United States Army, Daniel Driscoll, before their meeting on November 20.
Reuters
The Kremlin’s latest influence and manipulation operation is the supposed 28-point peace plan. So far, the operation is proving successful. Not because it will foster a lasting and sustainable peace agreement, but because it is, once again and perhaps irremediably, straining the seams of the transatlantic link and also within the establishment North American and European.
If there were not thousands of lives at stake, the farce surrounding this peace plan would be comical. But it is not. And it is even worse if we consider that the future of peace and stability on the continent is decided in a game in which Europe is not a subject, but an object.
At this point, many details are already known about how this operation was carried out. However, this knowledge is not enough to neutralize it. because the Russian move skillfully exploits political fissures in Washington and European capitals.
We thus witness several simultaneous diplomatic and political games.
The operation is started Kirill Dmitrievwho, after the failure of the attempt to organize a second Putin- Trumpthis time in Budapest, meets in Miami with his interlocutor in the White House, Steve Witkoff. Dmitriev is the counterpart that Moscow has pulled out of its hat for dialogue with the business environment that orbits Trump and his family.
And at the moment it is giving results.
Thus, everything indicates that Dmitriev leaks to the digital Axios a document that this medium presents as “Trump’s 28-point plan.” That filtration and that “framing” (framing) allow the Russians to shape the narrative and provoke the first Ukrainian and European reactions, in a textbook example of “reflexive control.”
That is, getting an actor to act against his own interests, manipulated by his adversary.
Thus, the dissemination of an alleged “Trump plan”, clearly favorable to Russia, motivates the dramatic video of Zelensky in which he points out that the dilemma is “between dignity or the loss of an essential ally.” Note that he does not speak of defeat because Russia, I insist, is not prevailing on the battlefield.
“The outlook is neither comfortable nor conducive, but it is what it is and it is somewhat better than a few months ago. Which encourages Europe to continue working without making it so easy for Moscow”
This statement, in turn, generates panic in European capitals and some reactions from prominent voices who are betting on a break with a Washington already described as “adversary.”
Toasts and violins sound in Moscow (and Beijing!).
You may like Trump more or less, but the one who threatens to unleash a full-scale war against Europe is Putin. And Europe is existentially dependent on the United States in strategic terms.
That is the context that must be navigated with vision and waist while Europe equips itself with the means and capacity to restore deterrence on the continent. It is not a comfortable or favorable outlook, but it is what it is and it is somewhat better than a few months ago. Which invites Europe to continue working without making it so easy for Moscow.
Among the relevant changes in recent months, it is worth noting, for example, the increasingly audible voices of senators and Republican figures with realist and Atlanticist sensibilities, or the surveys that suggest that the MAGA bases support a firm position without concessions to Russia.
A division thus begins to crystallize between realistic Trumpists and others who are increasingly less Trumpist and aligned not only with Russia, but with other adversaries of the United States such as Iran or China. Part of the formerly called “punki right” has become “right Chomsky”.
And these are some of the veins and opportunities for Europe to reformulate the transatlantic link without succumbing to either the commercial blackmail of the White House or the military and nuclear coercion of the Kremlin.
Furthermore, and despite all his peculiarities, Trump has opened himself to secondary sanctions, which are what can force Russia to negotiate seriously in a few months. Joe Bidenalthough he was more educated and appointed cute ambassadors in Europe, he never dared to truly challenge Putin.
I insist: the context is neither comfortable nor conducive, but it is about saving the European project and preserving peace on the continent. That requires using all our strategic intelligence, not publishing tweets and great forums.
The indignation of some of those Republican senators at what appears to be an unacceptable concession (and counterproductive to the interests of the United States) forces an emergency meeting with the Secretary of State and national security advisor, Marco Rubio. Without a doubt, the most favorable figure for Ukraine and conducive to European interests in Trump’s cabinet.
In the dynamics of this second Trump term, the double hat does not give Rubio as prominent a position in the government machinery as one might expect, but at the very least it prevents a figure aligned with J.D. Vance or with his own agenda he occupies the national security portfolio.
So he double hat facilitates your diplomatic work.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
Reuters
According to what was leaked hours later, in that meeting Rubio denied that what was published by Axios be the United States plan. When the meeting takes place, two pieces of information are already circulating that point to Russian manipulation, although they do not leave the United States Government in a good light.
On the one hand, it is confirmed that the plan in English is a defective translation of an original in Russian, probably made with an automatic translator. On the other hand, and showing his skill in these matters, Witkoff himself confirms by mistake in his X account that Dmitriev leaked the document to Axios.
The Russian move is becoming clearer, but the snowball has picked up speed and is going down the slope.
Rubio is probably also tempted to publish tweets and forums, but he must avoid public confrontation with Witkoff, even more so since he has hired Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushnerin a movement that, according to the Washington Posthave been presented to the president as a kind of Gaza agreement for Ukraine that will be ready by Thanksgiving.
That is, this Thursday, November 27.
Rubio opts for damage control, and perhaps the neutralization of the Russian operation, traveling last Sunday to Geneva to participate in talks with a Ukrainian delegation. From there comes a document with 19 unpublished points, but which, as unofficially noted, does not include territorial concessions.
If so, the plan may be considered dead.
The transfer of the Donbas under Ukrainian control is not a question of “dignity”, but strictly military: we are talking about a densely fortified territory that makes up the advanced defense perimeter of Kyiv and where the Russians have been bogged down for months and months and suffering tens of thousands of casualties.
Giving it over without security guarantees would be strategic suicide.
The cancellation of the summit in Budapest occurred after a call between Rubio and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrovin which, without a doubt, he confirmed Russia’s lack of true negotiating will. Furthermore, it is likely that there is not much harmony between the two, although ironically they share the toothache that these presidential envoys with no experience or diplomatic weight represent.
“The document was favorable to Russia, but probably unacceptable to Putin, even though he publicly endorsed it”
Until the interview he gave this Tuesday to a television channel, Lavrov had been missing from the public scene since that call, fueling speculation about his fall from grace. I don’t think so, but we’ll see.
Of course, it will be interesting to see if he decides to take advantage of the obvious errors (such as explicitly acknowledging that Russia takes Ukrainian children as “hostages”) contained in the note. Axios leaked by Dmitriev.
The document was favorable to Russia, but probably unacceptable to Putin, even though he publicly endorsed it. The objective, I insist, is not to achieve peace, but to break Euro-Atlantic support for Ukraine.
Hence, the Kremlin’s agitation machinery and unofficial spokespersons contradict Putin’s statements by insisting that the plan is insufficient and that the objective remains the destruction of Ukraine and the annihilation of the Ukrainians.
Putin’s objective these days is to convince Trump that it is the Ukrainians who do not want to end a war that has irritated the American president since the beginning of his second term and that, in addition, distracts a Washington now focused on the operation against Maduro and the Suns cartel in Venezuela.
Operation in which, by the way, Rubio is risking a good part of his options to lead the Republicans in 2028. Something that the Europeans should not lose sight of with such ease and lack of strategic vision.
The game continues at this moment in Abu Dhabi, where Daniel DriscollSecretary of the Army and close to JD Vance, and Jared Kushner meet with a Russian delegation to present a 19-point plan that is likely to be difficult for Moscow to digest.
Additionally, Driscoll and probably Kushner will also meet with the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanovtrue bete noire of the Russians and authentic superstar between the Ukrainians and their allies.
Oh yes! I forgot. The Europeans have also drawn up their own counterproposal. Very good if that helps Ukraine to profile and defend its own, but as long as the statements and gestures are not accompanied by determined actions and military muscle, the future of Europe will be in the hands of others.
*** Nicolás de Pedro is an expert in geopolitics and head of Research and Senior Fellow at the Institute for Statecraft.