The vice president and Minister of Finance, Marinto Jesús Montero, has presented an unsurprising non-financial spending ceiling proposal. It’s monyes, you can eveninto say that it is measured taking into account the evolutionfromn of the executionfromn budget of the úlast months
With a forecastfromn real GDP growth by 2026, seven dandsummits lower than expected to beon the end of 2025 (+2.2% vs. +2.9%) and a drop in mons of one point for nominal GDP (+5.5% in 2025 and +4.3% in 2026) the non-financial expenditure ceiling increaseon less than proportionally.
All this is notinpossible without a collectionfromn tax that continues to increase at a rate of two daysingitos. Sayún the úlast executionfromIn the budget corresponding to the first nine months of 2025, the collectionfromnet of direct taxes and contributionson increasing by 19.3% year-on-year, while the collectionfromn for indirect taxes also rises 22.4%andn and tandinterannual terms.
In total, non-financial income isonn fired 12.7% in the perinall January-September of this year compared to the same personinheard from last year.
These incomes, together with the incessant modifications of the capsinexpense items, has generated a “parallel budget”whose sizeThe total amount now amounts to 44,887 million euros until September. If only non-financial expenses are computed, the “parallel spending ceiling” has increased by 26,453 million euros compared to what was budgeted compared to the 16.6 billion expectedand increase the spending ceiling in 2026 compared to 2025.
That the public debt continues to be above 100% of GDP is a sign that the debt is still not truly tied up
Taking into account that we still need to know what happened in October, what is happening in November and what will happen in December, we could be talking about a total increase in spending above what was budgeted by more than 50,000 million euros.
The impossibility of approving new General State Budgets for 2026, and on the direct path to the third prfromconsecutive budgetary period of a fundamental Law that was approved by a Legislature and applied by an Executive that both no longer exist, leads to entrusting permanent growth above the expectations of the collection.fromn fiscal. Even European funds are no longer a guarantee of providing more extra resources.
Precisely for this reason the Minister of Economy proposes to do a new addendum. The deadlines are running out, the investments have not been executed and a good part of this financing is being allocated to current spending even if it is disguised as capital transfers.
The fiscal situation for this Sánchez-Díaz Government is so favorable that it will hardly be repeated in such a bonanza future, fruit of a considerable fiscal effort by families, companies, more than 2 million inhabitants (which will rise to a total population of 50 million in 2026 according to the latest forecasts) and “cold progressivity” or, in other words, charging taxpayers more taxes than they are required to pay due to accumulated inflation that has not been adjusted for bases or rates, nor for reductions and deductions.
Precisely for this reason, It is not acceptable to celebrate as a success that the country can once again register a primary surplus (budget balance discounting debt interest) when we should, at least, be generating a public surplus just like in 2007.
Likewise, that public debt continues to be above 100% of GDP It is a sign that the debt is still not truly tied up and our fiscal consolidation is entirely through temporary income, while spending grows structurally.
The European Commission’s updated autumn forecasts show this clearly. Spain continues to have a planned structural deficit of 3.2% at the end of this year and it would improve four tenths in 2026. Together with Italy and behind France we continue to have an imbalance independent of the cycle that remains relevant.