Germany continues to be the locomotive of Europe 27 even though its economy is only now beginning to show signs of recovery after the successive impacts of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, with the latter leading to sanctions against Russia that have affected a German industry accustomed to relying on Russian gas. The forecasts for 2026 are for growth, which is good news not only for the Germans, but also for European partners in general and, clearly, for Portugal. Only Spain counts more in terms of trade. As for investments, the German presence here is ancient, very strong and diverse.
As Ambassador Daniela Schlegel highlighted, in an interview published in Tuesday’s edition of DN, there are “around 720 German companies in Portugal, which create around 85,000 direct jobs, representing up to 12% of GDP”. A range that goes from AutoEuropa to Lidl, including Bosch, Mercedes, Lufthansa or SAP.
But it is not just the economy, even though Germany has the third largest in the world, that explains the EU’s locomotive status. It is also the most populous country, one of the founders of the EEC in 1957 and traditionally one of the most convinced of the advantages of a united Europe. “We must not forget that European integration is a unique success story. It is really difficult to imagine what our life would be like without the European Union in terms of free movement, education, science, research and the internal market”, said Ambassador Schlegel, in the aforementioned interview. And admitting, of course, that your country derives multiple advantages from this European integration, in fact the reason why it agreed to exchange the mark for the euro at the turn of the century: “We, like Germany, also depend a lot on exports to the EU”.
If we change the word locomotive to leadership, the German protagonism remains. Brexit, even though the United Kingdom was never 100% involved in the process of European construction, made the lack of alternatives to the Franco-German axis even more evident. But, in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron is a year and a half away from leaving, after two terms that fell short of prospects, and prime ministers succeed each other due to the lack of a clear government majority to support them. In contrast, in Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz managed this year to restore the Christian Democrats to power, after the party defeat that followed Angela Merkel’s departure from the scene, and to build a Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats that guarantees government stability despite the strength of extremist parties on the left and, above all, on the right, and the unpopularity that polls show.
German Merz is therefore in a position to position himself as the main European voice in a world in which the American Donald Trump, the Chinese Xi Jinping and the Russian Vladimir Putin want to place and dispose, ignoring the EU as much as possible. It is a complicated mission, especially because the American ally’s strategy is not clear. The good personal relationship that seems to exist between Merz and Trump is important, but above all, the new German government’s commitment to investment in Defense, in line with that defended by Washington, plays in the chancellor’s favor. Because you need to know how to make compromises.
I recall here what the ambassador said about the relationship with the United States: “Transatlantic relations are of fundamental importance for Germany, and relations with the United States are important for Germany and for Europe. Europe needs the United States for its security, but we have had to accept that the focus of the United States is shifting more to the Indo-Pacific, where there are many challenges that can also threaten our own security. Therefore, Europe needs to be more resilient and invest more in its own security. Therefore, our objective is to have a strong European pillar within NATO. The European pillar will not replace NATO, but it will reinforce NATO, as NATO is the only organization and the foundation that guarantees our security”.
After learning about the new American document on national security strategy, Merz reacted in a restrained manner, although the idea of “America first”, criticism of the way in which European societies evolve and the desire to find a speedy way out of the situation in Ukraine with Russia did not go down well in Berlin. Germany, like the 27 as a whole, wants to continue to count on the United States. That’s what makes sense.
It makes sense and is in line with what João Vale de Almeida, Portuguese who was Durão Barroso’s chief of staff during the presidency of the European Commission and EU ambassador to the United States, the United Nations and the United Kingdom, said last week in an interview with DN last week. Warned the author of The Divorce of Nations that “we shouldn’t give up on America irresponsibly and hastily. It’s too early to give up on America. Because we’ve had such fluctuations over the last 25 years, and I don’t know who will follow Trump. America will never be what it was before, in the sense of being the world’s policeman, of being open, deep down, to safeguarding Europe’s security. Let’s not have any illusions, it won’t go back to the way it was, but it won’t necessarily be the way it is today. So, from my point of view From a European point of view, we must not give up on America. We cannot afford to give up on America and it does not seem that America is already at a point where it has given up on Europe as well.
This is what is expected of European leaders, intelligence and resilience. A challenge for Merz, as he leads Germany, the continental locomotive. Support for Ukraine, which Berlin will not give up, will have to be managed according to the interests of the 27 as a whole and in concert with the United States.
Deputy Director of Diário de Notícias