MEXICO CITY.- The historical increment intended for the Wellness Programs by 2026, which would reach a billion pesosopened a debate on the fiscal sustainability of the current social spending model.
Despite the presidential support for this policy, it is warned that growth of this magnitude could compromise public finances and generate a vulnerable scenario in the event of an eventual economic slowdown.
Of the $2 BILLION pesos with which Claudia Sheinbaum’s Government went into debt in 2025, 1 BILLION (I repeat: BILLION) was allocated to finance MORENA’s clientelist-electorer social programs.
Such waste is unsustainable in the long term. It doesn’t take long for a… pic.twitter.com/k7aBqkC201
— Emilio Vallejo Rangel-Larios (@EmilioVallejoRL) December 2, 2025
Unprecedented expansion of social spending
President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that, by 2026, investment in social programs would reach one trillion pesos in direct support alone.
This increase would represent more than double the budget exercised in 2025year in which they were assigned 850 billion pesos.
The president highlighted that this expansion is based on greater collection and measures to close spaces for tax evasion.
However, he also recognized that much of the growth depends on income such as generated in customs.
Fiscal pressures and risk of unsustainability
During the years that gobernado la 4Tit has been pointed out that maintaining this rate of spending could be unsustainable.
The above would open the door to an economic crisis capable of reversing the social progress achieved in recent years.
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This concern arises because social spending has grown rapidly. In 2019, the initial budget for these support was 291 billion pesos; by 2025 it has practically tripled and, by 2026, it threatens to double again.
General increase in programs and beneficiaries
The Welfare Secretariat reported that its programs reached 18.4 million people in 2025, with six payments delivered throughout the year.
Just the Pension for Older Adults represented 484 billion pesoswhich makes it the most important component of social spending.
Likewise, the Women’s Wellness Pensionthe Pension for People with Disabilities and Sembrando Vida increased their amounts and coverage.
Likewise, programs like Working MothersBienpesca, Bienestar Fertilizers and Production for Wellbeing received significant budget expansions.
In education, The School is Ours benefited more than 8.1 million students with 25 billion pesos.
While the Benito Juárez Scholarships reached 12.8 million students with an investment of 128 billion. By 2026, the Beca Universal Rita Cetina It will also be extended to primary school.
Fear of increased costs
The growth of the list of beneficiaries, which could exceed 33 million in 2026has generated concern about the growing dependence of large sectors of the population on these supports.
It is warned that, if spending continues to expand without financial balance, the Mexican economy would face tensions that could lead to a deterioration in purchasing power.
In addition, it is warned that, even though collection has increased, continuing to finance universal programs on an increasing basis could force fiscal increases or debt in the short and medium term.