The Inegi estimated that Mexico’s economic activity fell in September and stagnated in October as it did not present variations with the same month of 2024.
Mexico City, November 20 (However).- The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that the national economic activity would have stuck in Octoberafter the recoil observed in Septemberaccording to the estimates of the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE).
Through a statement, the organization detailed that the economy showed no variations compared to the same month of the previous year, after registering a decrease of 0.46 percent. Furthermore, he pointed out that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (GAE) showed in September a monthly drop of 0.5 percentwhile no variations are anticipated for October, which reflects a trend of stagnation towards the end of the year.
In this context, the services sector would have recorded an estimated monthly decline of 0.2 percent in October, after a growth of 0.1 percent in September. While the industrial sector would have reported a marginal advance of 0.1 percent in the tenth month of the year, after an already observed fall of 0.4 percent in the immediately previous period.
In October 2025, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity #IOAE estimates that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity #IGAE will remain stable, without annual variation.
By activity groups, the following annual variations are expected:
⬇️-2.1% secondary
⬆️ 0.9%… pic.twitter.com/IvbgnwgdfT— INEGI INFORMA (@INEGI_INFORMA) November 20, 2025
At an annual rate, the IOAE anticipates a growth of just 0.02 percent in economic activity for October 2025, with figures adjusted for seasonality. In that same framework, industrial activities would decline 2.1 percent and services would advance 0.9 percent, which maintains a contrast between the two sectors.
Inegi recalled that the IOAE allows the performance of the IGAE to be estimated five weeks in advance, since it is published around eight weeks after the reference period. This tool seeks to provide early signals about economic evolution, especially in contexts of frequent variations between sectors.
Under this analysis, the Inegi monitoring indicates that from January to October the IOAE registered an annual variation of 0.14 percent, less than the 1.40 percent reported in the same period of the previous year. During those 10 months, the industrial sector would have decreased 1.70 percent annually, in contrast to the 1.06 percent annual advance estimated for tertiary activities.
Finally, the institute announced that this Friday the final IGAE figure for September will be published, which will confirm the anticipated decline for that month. Meanwhile, the estimates for October reinforce the perspective of an end to the year with low growth and with sectors that show divergent behaviors.