In the absence of alternatives, those opposed to the Fourth Transformation movement try, at least, to fan the flame of nonconformity. So far with few results, judging by the high approval levels maintained by Claudia Sheinbaum’s Government. After 7 years of failed arguments to convince citizens of the supposed perfidy or inability of the Obadorismo, the criticism has finally worn out. It takes too much naivety to believe in the narco-government thesis after Sheinbaum sent 52 drug lords to the United States. If there had been any pact, the government would have been the least interested in putting its alleged accomplices in the hands of another administration.
Much more profitable has been the exploitation of the issue of insecurity. The accumulated effect after almost 20 years of indiscriminate violence turns public opinion into fertile ground to sow fear and exasperation. Most likely the decisive “battle” between the 4T and the opposition will in the long run focus on the economy, but for now the issue of violence is more exploitable.
The problem for the opponents of the Sheinbaum Government is that this is the area in which it offers the best results in its first year. The reduction in the number of intentional homicides is significant, even if the issue of missing persons is considered. From 87 daily murders it went to 54, that is, a reduction of 37 percent in just 13 months. For the first time in many years there is a crime-fighting strategy that is bearing fruit.
That has not stopped critical media from exploiting the issue. The feeling of insecurity is relatively the easiest to instil among families and communities. Consequently, the opposition press has launched a battle between perception and reality. Enrique Peña Nieto ended his government with an average of 100 intentional homicides every day, but the media failed to report them. Whoever wants to take the trouble can consult the pages of the newspapers of those months. Today, when we are reaching half that number, the dead occupy the front pages of newspapers and news bulletins, as if it were a phenomenon in unbearable growth.
But precisely because the opposite is happening, figures are not cited. It is enough for the press to expose the five or six bloodiest or most striking cases of the day. And when a number is mentioned, it is usually the result of putting the magnifying glass on and ignoring the rest: “Deaths are growing in Guerrero, in 10 days more murders than in the entire previous month.” At no time is it realized that violence decreased in other entities, nor will it be reported that a month later Guerrero will return to more modest figures. By then the most striking data from anywhere else will be sought.
The only line that allows us to offer conclusive figures to magnify crime is extortion. Hence, only this statistic is used in news headlines. Never the decrease in homicides, robberies at home, businesses and roads, vehicle theft; All of these crimes have decreased by almost half since the times of Enrique Peña Nieto. On the other hand, extortion has grown 27 percent. That makes it the star news in the battle for public opinion.
However, there is a catch in handling this information. It is the least reported crime because it carries an explicit threat from criminals. Unlike other crimes, whose reporting is usually “in the past”, extortion is an ongoing scourge and reporting it entails an obvious risk. In reality, the newspapers do not disclose the number of actual extortions, but rather the number of reported extortions. These are the ones that have increased.
Intuitively, it is understood that extortion has acquired “industrial” modalities that did not exist before: against producers and merchants of a particular product or crop; or the generalization of the right to a flat throughout an entire population.
The government had in some way operated against its own image, by encouraging complaints and promising to address them, without having really resolved an effective formula to achieve it. The result was the worst of all worlds: the number of complaints increased, which generated the perception that it was a crime that was growing exponentially, but a specific strategy was not set up to deal with it effectively. Music to the ears of the critical press.
A contradiction that did not go unnoticed by the President. Five months ago Claudia Sheinbaum publicly acknowledged that it was the only crime that had not decreased and presented a specific strategy to combat it. To 089, a number explicitly dedicated to reporting complaints anonymously, a rapid response protocol, specialized care units were added, as well as an increase in the penalty for this crime. It immediately caused a spike in complaints, but in the last three months it has begun to decrease and today there are 14 percent fewer daily cases. Thanks to attention to the reports, 62 thousand extortions have been prevented.
Whether extortion continues to decline will depend on the progress of the strategy on several fronts, because it is a complex phenomenon. Quick response and effective protocols to combat extortion; electronic blocking in prisons and digital intelligence to reduce virtual extortion; control of the territory to neutralize mafias and cartels that milk producers and merchants.
I suppose that in the long run the government will achieve substantial progress, although I also suppose that the critical press will find a way to air the data that damages or the case that outrages to maintain the opposite.
However, for critics it will be a lost battle, it seems to me. I do not intend to minimize the fatigue generated by chronic violence in our country, but it is irresponsible to inflate it for inflammatory reasons or to ignore that something has finally begun to improve. The risk for the opposition is that by enlarging the phenomenon it also increases the merit of the government that achieves substantial progress on the matter. Without intending to, they will end up magnifying the figure of Omar García Harfuch, Secretary of Security and, by extension, that of his boss. @jorgezepedap