Israel received all its living prisoners, and most of the bodies of its dead prisoners held by the Qassam Brigades, especially the body of Colonel Assaf Hamami, commander of the Southern Brigade of the Gaza Division, on Monday, November 3, who is the highest-ranking Israeli officer captured by the Palestinian resistance.
The prisoner exchange is about to come to an end, and it is one of the files that troubled Benjamin Netanyahu. Due to pressure from Israeli society, the families of the prisoners, and the army leadership, which views the recovery of its captured soldiers as a “moral” obligation.
Prisoner exchange, despite its importance, is perhaps the most easy file in the ceasefire agreement, compared to other thorny political files related to the fate of the Gaza Strip and the national rights of the Palestinian people.
Completing the prisoner file in all its details may be a positive indicator of progress in other files, and may lead to a decline in Israel’s security and humanitarian commitments. During the prisoner exchange, the occupation did not commit to bringing in more than 25% of food and medical aid, and did not bring in more than 10% of the necessary fuel, not to mention its repeated bombing of the Gaza Strip, which led to more than 250 martyrs and hundreds of wounded, which indicates premeditated bad faith.
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Agreement on its importance in stopping genocide, rejecting displacement, introducing relatively aid, and approving the principle of complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, but it carries within it complex files that constitute a fertile environment for disagreement and political clash, if not security clash later. Among these thorny issues are:
First: Managing the Gaza Strip between two visions
President Trump’s plan seeks to form an administrative committee of “Palestinian technocrats and international specialists” led by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to manage municipal affairs and public services, under the oversight and supervision of the “Peace Council”, led by President Trump.
This formula will continue until the time the Palestinian Authority completes its reform program, which indicates the possibility of this temporary formula becoming permanent according to the American-Israeli perspective.
On the other hand, Hamas and the Palestinian forces seek to have the Gaza Strip administered through a Palestinian body of technocrats, led by a Palestinian from the Gaza Strip, or led by a minister from the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, provided that this body enjoys national consensus, with the possibility that the “Peace Council” led by President Trump will assist in the reconstruction file, and follow up on the transparency of the work of the mandated Palestinian body.
Second: Disarming the resistance…and Egypt is taking reservations
The plan stipulates the disarmament of the resistance and the dismantling of its infrastructure, especially the tunnels, and linking the completion of the withdrawal of the occupation army from the Gaza Strip to achieving this, and ensuring that the Gaza Strip does not pose a threat to Israel, while enabling international forces to control the Gaza Strip; To secure borders and prevent the introduction of weapons.
On the other hand, Hamas and the Palestinian resistance movement link the presence of weapons to the establishment of a Palestinian state, and consider this file a national file that requires discussion and national consensus in the first place.
What is noteworthy in this context is the statement of Mr. Diaa Rashwan, head of the State Information Service linked to the Egyptian presidency, when he indicated last month that Israel wants to disarm Hamas, but Hamas refuses, and considers it a weapon of resistance, indicating that there is a proposal to “freeze Hamas’ weapons during a 10-year truce instead of disarming them.”
Rashwan’s position indicates that Egypt has reservations about the idea of disarming the resistance, without the Palestinians gaining their right to self-determination and the establishment of their Palestinian state. If the state was not achieved at the time the Palestinians were fighting, how could it be established while Israel is tightening its control over the Gaza Strip and settling in the West Bank, while it has removed the fangs of the Palestinians and their most prominent members?ARhm.
This is in addition to the fact that Gaza is historically the eastern gateway to Egypt, and it is not in Egypt’s interest for it to fall into the hands of the Israeli occupation, or for it to fall under its absolute control.
Third: International separation forces or forces to protect the occupation?
The idea of international forces is a proposal shrouded in ambiguity. President Trump’s plan works to create “international stability” forces, as “long-term solution” forces. To provide security requirements, secure the borders, and prevent weapons from entering Gaza.
This ambiguity will make it one of the points of disagreement and discussion between the guarantor mediators themselves, and between them and the Israeli occupation, and in the corridors of the United Nations.
The Israeli occupation refuses the participation of Turkey and Qatar in the strength of these forces – even though they are two guarantor countries of the agreement with Egypt and the United States – by virtue of the positive relationship that links them with the Hamas movement. Turkey considers Hamas a national liberation movement, and President Erdogan describes Netanyahu as Hitler, accuses Israel of committing genocide, and supports with Qatar the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, which Israel rejects.
The presence of Turkish forces in Gaza gives Ankara a new power card in the face of Israeli influence in the region. Turkey now enjoys advanced relations with Syria, Iraq, the Arab Gulf states, Egypt, Libya, and Sudan… and it enjoys important relations with Washington, which it attaches special importance to due to the good relations between the two presidents. Erdogan and Trump.
This is not to mention the ongoing debate regarding the terms of reference for these forces, meaning whether they will act according to a Security Council resolution or not? What is the position of China and Russia? Will the Security Council determine its tasks and powers, or will it leave the matter to the United States and its ally, Israel? Are they international separation forces between the Palestinian and Israeli parties, or are they concerned with disarming the resistance and pursuing Palestinian activists?
The war is not over yet
President Trump’s plan ended the first round of the war, by stopping the crime of genocide, and by laying a theoretical basis for preventing displacement, rehabilitation and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and the withdrawal of the occupation army, but it left many central issues unresolved and subject to discussion and controversy, such as disarming the resistance and subjecting the Strip to long-term international guardianship, without considering the essence of the problem and solving it by empowering the Palestinian people with their right to self-determination, which makes the agreement fragile after two years of fighting, and under an extreme right-wing Israeli government.
This reality fuels doubt about the future and fear of a return to escalation in the Gaza Strip. The American administration did not back down from achieving the goals of the war and the goals of Benjamin Netanyahu by eliminating the Hamas movement authoritatively by removing it from the management of the Strip, and militarily by disarming it and taking Gaza under international guardianship as an alternative to direct Israeli occupation.
Perhaps there is difficulty in returning the war to what it was during the past two years (genocide); Because of Israel’s growing international isolation, the exhaustion of its army, the emergence of the problem of recruitment, and the restriction of brutal open war to an agreement witnessed by 20 influential countries at the Sharm El-Sheikh celebration led by President Trump.
But the difficulty of returning to the war with its previous brutality does not mean that Washington and Tel Aviv will back down from achieving the goals of the war that broke out two years ago. Trump’s plan is designed to achieve these goals through negotiations, and by exploiting the repercussions of the humanitarian catastrophe to subjugate the Palestinian position.
In this context, the violations of the Israeli occupation and the local bombing operations that claimed the lives of more than 250 martyrs and hundreds of wounded are turned a blind eye, under various pretexts and reasons, which are intended to continue Palestinian bleeding to achieve the goals.
Gaza has two Gazas: eastern and western
The occupation, by its nature, will not stop striving to possess the security equation by remaining in large parts of the Gaza Strip, and it will not stop blackmailing the Palestinians through crossings and sieges, and disrupting the reconstruction process, in order to keep the Palestinians busy and exhausted in providing the minimum necessities of life, which constitutes a sustainable deterrence and punishment mechanism for the Palestinians.
In this context, the occupation may resort to working in two parallel paths:
- First path: Exploiting the humanitarian catastrophe and disrupting reconstruction to push the Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip; In search of treatment, work and education, and to provide the necessities of life, to get rid of the largest possible number of residents, and it is not unlikely that this will be subject to “humanitarian” absorption programs in some countries for resettlement.
- Second path: Dividing the Gaza Strip into two Gaza Strips: eastern and western; This is in the event that the implementation of the stages of Trump’s plan related to disarmament of the resistance and international guardianship falters, after the completion of the prisoner file, which has reached its final stages.
In reality, the western half of the Gaza Strip is under the administration of the Hamas movement, and includes about two million Palestinians, while the other half is empty of residents, and is located east of the Yellow Line, under the control of the Israeli occupation army.
Israel, with American support, may begin to rehabilitate the areas east of the Yellow Line. To accommodate residents wishing to move to live under Israeli control, which will provide them with public services and aid, and the possibility of resuming the cycle of life again.
It is aided in this by the presence of international forces supervised by the Civil and Military Coordination Office established by Washington in Israel, which is concerned with following up on the logistical affairs of the ceasefire agreement, an office to which dozens of countries and organizations have joined, according to American announcements.
This context intersects with Clause (17) contained in Trump’s plan to end the war, which states: “If Hamas delays or rejects this proposal (what was mentioned in Trump’s plan), the implementation of what was mentioned above will begin, including expanding the humanitarian aid operation in areas free of terrorism (east of the yellow line), which will be handed over from the Israeli army to the International Stabilization Force.”
What reinforces this hypothesis are the statements of US Vice President J.D. Vance during his visit to Israel on October 21, when he said: “We hope to begin reconstruction quickly in areas not under Hamas control,” and he added: “We hope that about half a million people will be able to live in the city of Rafah within two or three years.”
The goal is to split the Palestinian people in Gaza into two parts: One part suffers from deprivation and humanitarian catastrophe under the administration of Hamas and the besieged Palestinian resistance west of the Yellow Line, and one part begins to restore the features of life east of the Yellow Line under Israeli control, which allows pressure on the popular incubator to break away from the resistance and move from the west of the line to its east, or from western Gaza under Hamas rule, to eastern Gaza under the rule of Israel and international forces.
This scenario results from the realization of the occupation, and its successor, the Americans, that one of the most important reasons for the strength of the Hamas movement and the Palestinian resistance in the face of the war of annihilation and Israel’s occupying plans is the cohesion of Palestinian society and the unity of the situation between it and the resistance.
Hence, Zionist thinking, after the failure of the military approach to achieve the goals of the war, tends to target the popular incubator by isolating it from the resistance through “humanitarian” areas established according to Israeli standards. To make way for the elimination and exhaustion of resistance; The first round of the war has stopped, but the war continues, and the confrontation is still raging and its chapters are not over yet.
The opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera Network.