Gert Wielders’ PVV, which had won the previous elections, lost a lot of votes and is not expected to lead the next government, unlike the current one, which it led (without Wielders) and which it overthrew.
On the other side, Rob Jetten’s D66, a left-liberal party (to put it simply) will have won (or come second) and should form a government, without Wielders’ far-right. But this good news is not all the news.
To begin with, if Wielders doesn’t come first, he will come second. For the Netherlands, known for its tolerance and great individual freedoms, it is not exactly a success to have in second place a party that advocates banning the Koran and feeds on hatred. Furthermore, the votes that Wielders lost in a small part they went to the Forum for Democracy, an openly pro-Russian party, and They largely went to JA 21, which is a little less populist and more acceptable. It’s better, it’s not good.
The most obvious thing about these elections is that the parties that were in government, the PVV, but also the liberal VVD, were penalized in the elections. Of those left out, it was not the Greens and Franz Timmermans’ Labor who benefited, but rather the previously weakened, progressive liberals D66 who stood out with charisma, combativeness and enthusiasm. The lesson can go here.
The big conclusion from last week’s Dutch elections is that the extreme right that governed lost votes, the not-so-populist and extremist populists that were not in government got a lot of them, the conservative liberals who agreed to go to government with the extreme right were only a little punished and the real winners of the night were the centrist Christian Democrats and progressive liberals, who gathered the votes on the other side of the political spectrum, while the traditional left lost again. In the end (which actually haven’t ended yet), what really changed was the feeling.
The party that should lead the government appealed to optimism, hope and traditional Dutch tolerance. There’s something obamic about Rob Jetten. What lost government leadership was the party that exploited hatred. That’s the big good news. It’s not huge, it’s not a landslide victory, but it’s a sign. People continued to want to change and vote for those who excite them, but they preferred to be excited by hope rather than anger. It’s the good news. Charisma, conviction and enthusiasm can mobilize voters. And you can be exciting and at the center. But after Obama came Trump.
There are other Dutch conclusions that may be just that: Dutch. Wanting to compare Dutch parties to Portuguese parties, to try to find out who lost and who won here is ridiculous. Politics in the Netherlands, in addition to being hyper-fragmented, is culturally very different from ours. D66 belongs to the family of Portuguese liberals, but is to the left of ours. IL cannot claim them as entirely brothers. But seeing people further to the left, who two years ago, and even just a few days ago, saw themselves as Timmermans’ socialists and greens, now claim to represent progressive liberals who, for example, have a different discourse on immigration, doesn’t make sense. Those most like the winners of the Dutch elections will be those who speak to voters with hope and enthusiasm. And that they are different from those who have governed until now. That could be the other lesson.
Another conclusion that can be drawn in The Hague, and that many of those who celebrate these results in other geographies would reject, is that the populist party lost after governing. In these two years the Dutch government was not especially radical. Seen from Brussels and European politics, there were no major problems. And the problems in the Netherlands remained the same. A large part of the elections was about immigration and housing.
In 2023/24, Wielders’ party led the country, but Wielders was excluded from the government. The other members of the coalition felt that this would protect them from the crime of association. The populist leader thought this would protect him from the costs of governing. Neither one thing nor the other happened. Some were punished, even if little. The others too. Conclusion for the Netherlands, the extremists’ coming to government was a loss for them. But it is not a conclusion for all places. In Austria, right-wing extremists have also gone to government, disappointed, lost, and then returned and won. And there is the United States. Trump returned stronger and less embarrassed. Anyone looking for recipes here will need to know how to adapt them.