“The problem with having experience is that you need to crush it to be considered to have won the debate”: the outburst comes from a member of Luís Marques Mendes’ candidacy, who admits to Expresso that need to “lower expectations” compared to the candidate who was leader of the PSD between 2005 and 2007, had government positions, parliamentary experience and, above all, was a television commentator for 12 long years. But never took part in debates for national elections. The skill, however, contrasts with the obvious inexperience of Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, but this could work in favor of the inexperienced and harm those who have a greater obligation to do well.
The ‘danger’ is real and this is how it is being perceived by Marques Mendes’ team, who notes to Expresso that the candidate prepares for each interview and each debate with an unusual detail for someone who has years of television skills. Marques Mendes does not like to be surprised and, therefore, prepares for all topics and eventualities. It is, from the group of candidates that leads the polls, the one who has to fight expectations the most.
The truth is that making weekly political commentary is not the same as facing political opponents face to face. The last time Marques Mendes did this was probably when Luís Filipe Menezes challenged him for leadership of the PSD, in 2007. And Mendes lost. During the two years in which the now presidential candidate was president of the PSD, between April 2005 and October 2007, there were no elections in which he appeared in debates as party leader. There were municipal, presidential, regional elections in Madeira and the referendum for the decriminalization of Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy. Despite having been a minister for several years, Marques Mendes never became a candidate for prime minister.
António José Seguro has a more or less similar dilemma: despite having been a former leader of the PS, he has less experience of debates and ‘one-to-one’ confrontation than some of his opponents on the left: Catarina Martins, as coordinator of the Left Bloc, voted in legislative elections (twice) and in European elections, as head of the list; João Cotrim Figueiredo was also voted as IL leader in legislative elections and this year in European elections; not to mention André Ventura, with whom Seguro will debut in the debates tonight, which is the electoral experience champion: in six years, already has eight elections – four candidacies for legislative elections, two for presidential candidates (including the current one), one for local elections and one for European candidates. He is the only true repeater – the only one who has already led a presidential campaign – and is, therefore, the most feared candidate to face in 30 minutes of open-air political confrontation.
Seguro’s last time in a television confrontation was in the PS primaries, in 2014, in which he starred in two debates against António Costa. I would end up losing this dispute. Before that, he only had two elections as general secretary: the local elections of 2013, won by the PS, and the European elections of 2014, won by a “little”, which motivated Costa’s challenge for leadership.
To Expresso, source of Seguro’s candidacy, tends to devalue the importance of the debates – which start this Monday and run until December 22nd – equating this moment of “sharing ideas with millions of Portuguese” with other moments such as the national route that the candidates are taking around the country, “Ouvir Portugal”, as Seguro calls it, or the “Democracy Convention” that Seguro organized this weekend, in Aveiro, and which, he says, was a moment of “frank, open and loyal debate with the focus of building a better country”. The difference, first of all, is that unlike each candidate’s campaign events, the debates are broadcast on an open channel (on SIC, TVI and RTP) and not on cable television news channels, and in prime time, at 9 pm. Therefore, the potential audience is huge.
Although António Filipe, PCP deputy, and Jorge Pinto, Livre deputy, have never led campaigns with this national projection, nor have they even been party leaders, one of them has parliamentary and political experience – António Filipe, who was a deputy for more than 30 years, and vice-president of the Assembly of the Republic -, and the other, Jorge Pinto, was a legislative candidate for Livre since 2015, having been head of the list for Porto in 2019, 2022, 2024 and 2025. It was only in 2024, however, that he was elected, having been re-elected the following year.
O true inexperienced politician He is, therefore, one of the favorites to win: Henrique Gouveia e Melo enters this race with the aura of being an extra-party candidate who can, therefore, and in theory, garner sympathies on the left, right and among those who are dissatisfied with the system. Num essay on presidential elections published this week by Expresso, Ricardo Costa raises precisely this question: “CoHow do you use mathematics in the preparation or during a television debate, which ends in 30 minutes?”, he says, remembering that Gouveia e Melo assumes himself, in the biography of journalist Vítor Matos, as a mathematician, military man, who thinks like a mathematician: “A Mathematics is reality and reality is mathematics. I try to see the problem in a very physical way, and when I can’t, I become disinterested.”
What is certain is that Gouveia e Melo may have expectations working in his favor, since it starts from a semi-zero starting point when it comes to electoral confrontation and television performance in this type of clash. On the other hand, he arrives at this campaign after having been well regarded in the eyes of the Portuguese by commanding two civilian missions – after the Pedrógão fires and in the Covid-19 vaccine operation -, therefore, he starts from a position considered high in public opinion (proof of this are the polls that, at the beginning of the presidential rehearsal, made him stand out above all others). Now, it won’t be like that anymore. After a few months of interviews and campaigning, voting intentions leveled him with Marques Mendes – the most recent polls have pointed to a technical tie between the two, some with a slight advantage for the former PSD leader.
The admiral’s debut will be with Cotrim Figueiredo, this Thursday, having three debates to gain training until reaching the three final confrontations: with António José Seguro, on December 9th, with André Ventura, on December 15th, and with Marques Mendes, the last one, on December 22nd. Then it will be seen whether political experience was useful in the clashes, or whether beginner’s luck also applies to politics.
The debates will take place from 9pm and should last between 30 and 35 minutes. They have the following calendar:
- November 17th, Monday, TVI – André Ventura – António José Seguro
- November 18, Tuesday, SIC – Luís Marques Mendes – António Filipe
- November 20th, Thursday, RTP – Henrique Gouveia Melo – João Cotrim de Figueiredo
- November 23, Sunday, SIC – Catarina Martins – Henrique Gouveia e Melo
- November 24th, Monday, RTP – João Cotrim de Figueiredo – Jorge Pinto
- November 25th, Tuesday, SIC – Luís Marques Mendes – André Ventura
- November 26th, Wednesday, TVI – Jorge Pinto – Henrique Gouveia e Melo
- November 27th, Thursday, RTP – António José Seguro – João Cotrim de Figueiredo
- November 28th, Friday, TVI – André Ventura – Catarina Martins
- November 29th, Saturday – Luís Marques Mendes – Jorge Pinto
- November 30th, Sunday, SIC – João Cotrim de Figueiredo – António Filipe
- December 1st, Monday, RTP – António José Seguro – Jorge Pinto
- December 2nd, Tuesday, TVI – António Filipe – Henrique Gouveia e Melo
- December 3, Wednesday, RTP – António José Seguro – Luís Marques Mendes
- December 4th, Thursday, TVI – Catarina Martins – João Cotrim de Figueiredo
- December 6, Saturday, SIC – António José Seguro – Catarina Martins
- December 7th, Sunday, TVI – João Cotrim de Figueiredo – Luís Marques Mendes
- December 8, Monday, RTP – António Filipe – Jorge Pinto
- December 9, Tuesday, SIC – Henrique Gouveia e Melo – António José Seguro
- December 10th, Wednesday, RTP – Catarina Martins – António Filipe
- December 11th, Thursday, SIC – André Ventura – Jorge Pinto
- December 12th, Friday, RTP – Luís Marques Mendes – Catarina Martins
- December 13th, Saturday, RTP – André Ventura – António Filipe
- December 15th, Monday, RTP – Henrique Gouveia e Melo – André Ventura
- December 19th, Friday, SIC – João Cotrim de Figueiredo – André Ventura
- December 20th, Saturday, TVI – António José Seguro – António Filipe
- December 21st, Sunday, RTP – Catarina Martins – Jorge Pinto
- December 22nd, Monday, TVI – Henrique Gouveia e Melo – Luís Marques Mendes