There are budgets that fix it. This one tries to move the engine. The State Budget for 2026 places innovation and entrepreneurship at the center of the growth strategy: less fiscal friction to invest, more funds for those who transform knowledge into business and a State that promises to finally speak with a single digital voice. The intention is right. The challenge is to execute.
The reduction in the normal IRC rate from 20% to 19% is a point — not an end point — in a path of relief that, when accompanied by regulatory stability, can help investment and gain scale. The incentive for salary increases also remains: companies that increase salaries by at least 4.6% can pay IRS-free bonuses of up to 6% of annual remuneration. It is a positive measure that links income to productivity and not to subsidies.
The State also reinforces the ecosystem with money and agenda: investment of 6.6 million euros in ANI for technological projects, the internationalization of startups deep techand financial support for Clusters of Competitiveness by up to 4 million euros. All of this fits into the need to transform science into value and value in exports, but it is a clearly low value (almost ridiculous).
This year ANI launched the first funding notice for startups deep tech with an allocation of 3.5 million euros – the values do not match the ambition of the speech. There is also a risk of fragmenting into small projects, with little critical mass, when we need fewer “pilots” and more “platforms” with European ambition.
While the United States and China multiply investments in disruptive technologies, Europe — and Portugal — remain hostage to fragmentation and lack of scale.
The interconnection of data between public entities and Startup Portugal, the principle of only once and the creation of a Chief Information Officer of the State and a Digital Agency are, potentially, the most transformative measure in the package. Fewer forms and more data circulating safely and responsibly save companies thousands of hours and capital that should go to products, customers and internationalization. However, here the difference between the announcement and reality is measured in functional APIs (Application Programming Interfaces), deadlines met and penalties for non-compliance.
There are also liquidity instruments, such as authorization for loans and other credit operations of up to 6 billion euros, the reinforcement of bank guarantees and the fund of funds for business capitalization aimed at SMEs and startupswith which it is decided whether we create true scaleups or more undercapitalized “zebras.”
In 2025, Banco Português de Fomento (BPF) supported 12,500 companies, having financed some of them with more than 5,150 million euros (more than ten times the 2024 value), representing 1.8% of GDP (compared to 0.2% in the previous year). The muscle is there. However, we must question whether it can scale, maintaining rigor in selection, speed in decision-making and focus on projects with systemic returns. Execution, execution, execution.
Another critical point is the possible end of SIFIDE (System of Tax Incentives for Research and Business Development) indirect. The debate is legitimate, but uncertainty is toxic. Companies that invest in R&D need to know what they can count on. If the regime ends, let it end quickly and with alternatives. If it continues, may it continue with stability. A quick decision and clear communication are essential to avoid blocking 2026 projects.
Expenditure on the Economy Budget Program rises 20.8%, to 4,559.5 million euros, with more than half dedicated to entrepreneurship and innovation. The Government proposes sensible indicators: startups active (legal) assets, high technology exports, position on the European Innovation Scoreboard, patents per billion euros of GDP and R&D expenditure. But ambition remains to be measured. It’s not enough to create startups; It is important to build companies that export, employ, dominate technologies and markets.
OE 2026 gets the diagnosis right: pro-investment taxation, more funds for innovation, administrative simplification and the digital State. The risk is to fall into the old Portuguese trap: lots of initiative, little scale; many programs, little continuity; lots of conformity, little competitiveness.
If the State’s digital agenda leaves PowerPoint, the BPF maintains rigor and focus on transformative projects, the fund of funds brings patient capital and there is fiscal stability in R&D, then this Budget can really change the engine, tune the transmission and accelerate. Otherwise, we will continue to run in place, while the leaders of the intangible economy overtake us left and right.