Published in recent weeks by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, the Tourism Barometer shows that the majority of Portuguese want to maintain the sector as an economic engine, but without the rapid growth model that puts pressure on cities and their residents. The study shows that there is a high degree of agreement with this statement, which has an average of 3.57 on a scale of 1 to 5.
This search for balance is reinforced by the diagnosis made by the researchers who signed the report (which you can consult here), like Paulo M. Rodrigues, who warns that some areas of the country “are already reaching a level that can be considered rupture”, namely Lisbon, Porto, Algarve and the Douro. The challenge, suggests the NOVA SBE professor, is to “guide growth towards municipalities with less exposure, where there is still scope to receive more visitors”, and not so much to hinder tourism. The word is “redistribute” the flows.
Housing continues to be the most visible face of the problem, recognizes Luís Mendes, geographer and researcher at IGOT (Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning at the University of Lisbon), who recalls that “there is a lot of literature that proves a direct and indirect impact of tourism and the expansion of tourist accommodation formats on housing prices”. Negative externalities, such as noise, trash or the loss of nearby businesses, worsen the feeling of wear and tear.
Act to avoid “touristophobia”
Among the possible answers, Luís Mendes highlights the potential of creating Municipal Tourism Councils, permanent structures that bring together residents, mayors, researchers and operators to monitor pressures, discuss limits and anticipate conflicts. It also defends the need for a Municipal Tourism Charter, similar to the housing charter, which establishes clear objectives for the use of the territory and ensures that the growth of the activity does not compromise the quality of life of those who live there.
“Revenues should be used to improve public space and integrate residents in decisions, because they are the ones who live there 365 days a year”, argues Zélia Breda
Pedro Machado, Secretary of State for Tourism, recalls that the sector “impacts 49 activities”, insisting that the public debate “should not be reduced to housing or local accommodation”. It recognizes, however, that it is necessary to adopt greater regulatory rigor to avoid damage to the territories. “We have 126 thousand AL registrations, but only 76 thousand have an insurance certificate”, which reveals “tens of thousands of ghost registrations” and the urgency of ensuring more rational management, he says.
Despite the externalities, the study rules out rejection scenarios and “touristophobia is still not felt”, considers Tiago Mota Saraiva. For this not to happen, argue the experts interviewed by Expresso, there needs to be a return to activity for residents. “Revenues should be used to improve public space and integrate residents into decisions.”
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
This view is consistent with other data from the barometer, which shows that more than two thirds of respondents support measures that prioritize the well-being of residents, even if this implies short-term losses. There is also significant agreement on the limits to local accommodation in saturated areas and the need to diversify the economy to reduce dependence on tourism.
For Zélia Breda, “excessive dependence on a single activity is always a risk”, especially in a sector marked by trends and volatility. “Portugal is in fashion today, but that could change from one day to the next”, agrees Paulo M. Rodrigues, who says it is necessary to diversify the economy to reduce vulnerabilities and guarantee resilience.
“Territories cannot continually receive tourists in an unregulated and infinite way. There must be clear guidelines”, points out Luís Mendes
According to INE, tourism represented around 12% of national GDP in 2024, equivalent to €34 billion, but its contribution to the country’s growth slowed down. In 2023 it had been responsible for almost half of the real increase in GDP, while in the following year it explained only 15% of the variation, having been less decisive in the economic dynamics. In the Government, voices such as that of the Minister of Finance have defended the reduction of the importance of tourism and exports, and a greater focus on activities with greater added value.
The future, experts argue, involves applying a long-term vision that generates flows, not just numbers. Zélia Breda recalls that many international destinations already use technologies that distribute visitors throughout the day, reducing pressure peaks with “applications to manage waiting times and prevent everyone from going to the same place at the same time”.
And this vision is also being worked on by the executive, points out the Secretary of State, who reveals that a new national strategy for tourism is being prepared, to be presented by the end of the year and which he describes as a “reunion between those who receive and those who are received”. The objective is to mitigate externalities and make tourism a more balanced activity in the territory.
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