First, the good news. For those who have invested in gold, silver and coffee or cocoa contracts, the markets have smiled on you over the last three years. Prices more than doubled. They were the ‘stars’ in commodities, in raw materials.
Gold jumped from $1692 per ounce at the end of October 2022 to an all-time high of $4250 during the November 13 session. The price of an ounce of silver soared 155% between September 1, 2022 and November 24, 2025. Since the beginning of January this year alone, it has already risen 74%.
Among the agricultural raw materials with the biggest price increases in the last three years, cocoa stands out with a 103% increase and coffee with increases of 146% in the Robusta variety and 127% in Arabica. In both cases, extreme weather events penalized harvests in Africa, Asia and Latin America, combined with the emergence of a new mass consumption market in coffee, China.
For our table, and even for Christmas sweets, the news this year is good. The price of potatoes has plummeted since the beginning of the year. This year, in the ingredients for sweets, prices fell for sugar, cocoa and eggs in the raw materials markets. Oil and natural gas have also become cheaper since January in the oil markets. commoditiesreducing the energy bill based on fossil fuels. Arabica coffee saw its price rise by 16% this year, but coffee from the other variety, Robusta, saw a price drop of 8%.
Haven and speculation investments
Price variation in the last three years in %
Rare metal basket
Price variation since the beginning of 2025 in %
For those who produce, the year is being good, or even very good, in several areas: the aggregate prices of rare earths, where China dominates global mining and refining, and of several raw materials considered critical for the industry have risen in price.
The prices of cobalt and sulfur, traded in Chinese markets, soared above 100%, highlighting the rise in prices of commodities this year. TO China controls a large part of the cobalt value chain, especially in refining, with more than 70% of global capacity. Silver, platinum and rhodium, critical for industries, have seen their prices rise by more than 70% since the beginning of the year. Silver has a top club of producers formed by Mexico, China, Peru and Poland. South Africa dominates platinum and rhodium.
Critical raw materials for industry
Price variation since the beginning of 2025 in %
On the other side of the coin, there are 15 raw materials that are on a trajectory to fall in prices by more than 10% this year, penalizing producing countries. The agricultural sector is the most affected: more than half of commodities with price drops above 10%.
Price drops of more than 50% include potatoes, orange juice, eggs (in the United States) and cocoa. The potato club includes China, India, Ukraine and Russia. Brazil accounts for 79% of the orange juice sold in the world. Cocoa has become a special case of a reversal in prices: after a 170% spike last year, due to climate events in the main producing countries, the price is plummeting this year, with a drop of 56%.
A price drop that has a geopolitical impact is the price of a barrel of Russian oil, the Ural variety, which has already fallen 23% this year, which is harming Russia’s income. With this drop, the revenue of Russian producers and exporters decreases significantly, affecting the country’s trade balance and the Kremlin’s public finances, since the Russian economy depends heavily on oil exports to generate revenue. Furthermore, Russian companies linked to the oil sector face tighter profit margins and may have difficulty financing new investments.