The year 2025 has been disastrous for Sri Lanka’s agriculture, especially after Cyclone Ditwah caused severe destruction through heavy rains, landslides, and crop damages in different agro-ecological zones.
While the immediate physical devastation was evident in the destruction of houses and infrastructure, the deeper and far-reaching consequence are the hidden agricultural toll which will shape food availability and farm incomes well into 2026.
The cyclone came when the Yala crop had been harvested and most of the Maha season crops were either just emerging or were still young at a stage of high vulnerability.
Young plants either got buried or pulled out, field plants were submerged, and trees lost their fruits and flowers at an unusually high rate.
All these disruptions affect paddy, vegetables, fruits, plantation crops and home gardens and cause a cascading shock which not only undermines the current production but also threatens future harvests, household nutrition and national food security.
The Hidden Agricultural Toll of Cyclone Ditwah
Cyclone Ditwah caused severe damage to early-stage Maha season crops—particularly paddy, vegetables, and other field crops—creating a shock with both immediate and long-term production impacts.
Even perennial crops such as tea, rubber, coconut, fruit trees, and home garden crops, which are typically less affected by short seasonal fluctuations, are expected to have sustained varying levels of damage as well.
The scale of these losses is largely because a significant portion of the affected area overlaps with Sri Lanka’s main crop-growing regions (see Figure 1).
Paddy cultivations were at their most vulnerable early stages such as seedling, transplanting, and early vegetative when the cyclone struck.
Intense and prolonged rainfall has left large areas submerged or waterlogged, delaying planting cycles, reducing the cultivated area, and likely causing significant yield losses in the upcoming harvest.
Extensive losses occurred to vegetable and other field crop productions across both up-country and low-country regions.
Many vegetable cultivations nearing harvests and in vegetative, flowering, or early fruiting stages, suffered severe damage due to flooding, prolonged waterlogging, and strong winds.
Anecdotal reports from the Galkadapathana Village in Nuwara Eliya district, for instance, indicate some localised damage to vegetable cultivations under protective structures such as greenhouses as well.
According to the patterns seen during the 2017 floods and landslides, which were smaller than Cyclone Ditwah, similar or greater levels of damage for plantation crops like tea, rubber, and coconut, are highly likely.
Strong winds and landslides can injure trees physically, which may lead to dropping of flowers and immature nuts, resulting in production declines in the following months.
Based on experiences from the 2017 floods and landslides, home gardens and mixed cropping systems, many of which had reached vegetative or early fruiting stages, are also likely to have been damaged, often buried under mud and sand, requiring extensive cleaning and replanting in most cases.
Figure 1: Agricultural Land Use and Extreme Rainfall During Cyclone Ditwah
From Production Losses to Price Spikes: The Emerging Food Security Outlook
Using the 101kg annual consumption per capita in 2019 as a benchmark, the total national need for paddy approximates 4 million MT which includes seed paddy, processing losses, wastage and other requirements.
The Maha season contributes roughly two-thirds of the rice production with the planting of approximately 800,000 hectares each year.
However, the Disaster Management Centre (DMC) has reported that paddy has been sown on 563,950 hectares so far and most of this area has suffered due to the heavy rains.
Hence, the production will be very low in 2026, causing food security implications unless immediate soil fertility restoration and replanting take place.
Similarly, about 95,799 hectares of other field crops and 13,463 hectares of vegetables which is about 64% of Maha 2024 other field crops’ extent and 74% of Maha 2024 vegetable extent have sustained extensive damage.
The income of farmers from the affected areas will most likely reduce significantly because of crop destruction and planting delays.
A substantial investment will be required to renew production capacity through soil fertility restoration, protective structure repairing, and replanting.
For many smallholder farmers who are already struggling with lower profits, the increased costs of replanting may result in having to borrow funds, thereby reducing their ability to cope with future climate change shocks.
Communities working in plantations like tea and rubber will also face income cuts owing to the destruction of estates and the disruption of the harvesting cycles which will subsequently impact their food security and general wellbeing.
The cyclone’s immediate effect was a dramatic rise in vegetable prices that were mainly due to a sudden shortage of supply (Figure 1).
Among the affected vegetables were carrot, green chilli, cabbage, beans, tomato, and pumpkin, which in some markets have even experienced price increases of 100% to 350%.
These price hikes make it much less affordable for low-income families to buy food and practically cut off their access to micronutrient-rich foods that are taken as a staple in a healthy diet.
In fact, vulnerable groups, such as children under five, pregnant and lactating mothers, older persons, and people with disabilities will have an even harder time coping with malnutrition as their access to regular meals gets more limited.
While price volatility is likely to persist for at least a few weeks until roads are cleared and supply flows stabilise, this short-term improvement may not fully offset the longer-term food supply challenges that are expected to emerge in 2026.
Figure 2 : Vegetable Price Spikes Post-Cycle Ditwah
Source: Daily price reports, Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Nationally, food insecurity is likely to increase due to a reduction in domestic production, reduced farmer incomes, and higher consumer prices.
With restricted access to fruits, vegetables, and other nutrient-dense foods, the population’s nutrition will likely worsen, particularly for poor and vulnerable households.
More broadly, Sri Lanka’s increased reliance on imports such as onions, potatoes, pulses, fruits, and even rice is going to diminish its foreign exchange reserves and make it more susceptible to the fluctuation in the price of commodities around the world.
Recovery and climate resilience development plans throughout the food system are urgently needed given the interconnectedness of the impacts caused by this cyclone through markets, agriculture, livelihoods, and nutrition.
Key Action Areas for Post-Cyclone Food System Stabilisation
The immediate priority is to restore the physical flow of food from producing areas to the main wholesale and retail markets to normalcy.
It is important to consider clearing the up-country road network, improving access to transport corridors that link Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Kandy to the Dambulla and Colombo markets.
Fast removal of debris, construction of temporary bridges, and emergency repairs on roads can significantly reduce market shortages and, consequently, stabilise prices in the country.
An immediate and precise support package for the agricultural sector is necessary to restore the Maha crop and to avoid further economic losses.
Seed packs, tools, and fertilisers given as replacement will support farmers to immediately attend to their paddy fields and vegetable plots.
Income loss is another cause for many farmers to struggle with replanting.
Thus, grants and soft loans for replanting will be critical in preventing distress borrowing.
Repairing collection points, storage areas, and damaged rural roads will not only improve the efficiency of transporting farms produce to markets but also reduce post-harvest losses during the recovery period.
It is necessary to safeguard the most vulnerable households during the time of price fluctuations.
Poor families living in towns and plantations can be shielded from malnutrition with the help of temporary targeted food subsidies for essential vegetables and pulses.
In addition, market monitoring should be reinforced to prevent skyrocketing prices, hoarding, and rent-seeking, which commonly exacerbate the impact of such crises.
The cyclone has shown that climate resilience in various agro-ecological zones is a pressing need.
Climate-smart agricultural practices, such as the use of drip irrigation, protected cultivation, planting of climate-resilient varieties, and slope stabilisation, are most crucial to agriculture in high-risk upcountry regions.
It is suggested that the district-level disaster preparedness plans should include better integration and early warning systems for landslides, flash floods, and severe storms.
Investment in protected cultivation structures like polytunnels and similar approaches can reduce crop losses and maintain the market supply even in harsh weather conditions in areas that are prone to high rainfall or landslides.
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