WASHINGTON / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – The political and military situation in Myanmar remains tense as the US has so far failed to provide military support to the pro-democracy National Unity Government (NUG). Despite China’s continued support for the ruling military junta, the Tatmadaw, US intervention could be crucial to strengthening democracy in the region and limiting Chinese influence.
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The political situation in Myanmar has been extremely unstable since the military junta’s coup in 2021. The Tatmadaw, led by Min Aung Hlaing, has taken control of the country, but its grip is far from secure. The National Unity Government (NUG) and its allies are offering fierce resistance and there is speculation that the junta controls less than a third of the country’s cities. Despite these challenges, the Tatmadaw has made a surprising recovery with support from China.
China has increased its support for the Tatmadaw after initially adopting a balanced stance towards the various parties to the conflict. This support may arise from concerns that the NUG could establish a pro-American democracy that would weaken China’s influence in the region. The US, on the other hand, has so far held back and not provided military assistance to the NUG, which is seen as a missed opportunity to promote democracy in Myanmar while limiting China’s influence.
The US is currently heavily involved in other international conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. This focus has resulted in the civil war in Myanmar being pushed into the background. Many Americans see Myanmar as a distant problem that poses no direct threat to the United States. There are also fears that military support for the NUG could provoke China, which would further strain already strained relations.
Nevertheless, there are strong arguments for US intervention. Supporting the NUG could not only lead to the restoration of democracy in Myanmar, but also provide strategic benefits for the United States. A pro-American Myanmar could serve as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia. Additionally, control of the Andaman Sea could allow the US to block the Straits of Malacca, a key trade route for China. These strategic considerations could persuade the USA to reconsider its previous reluctance and to support the NUG militarily.
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