What is the recipe for the success of the Doha negotiations to resolve the Afghan-Pakistani crisis? | policy

The Doha negotiations to resolve the Afghan-Pakistani crisis are testing “the feasibility of mechanisms and guarantees” capable of establishing a sustainable calm, in light of the exchange of accusations between the two parties of violating the ceasefire.

In this context, Afghan academic and political analyst Obaidullah Bahir accused Pakistan of adopting a policy “inspired by a counter-insurgency model that strikes civilians instead of armed targets,” stressing that “bombing populated areas violates sovereignty and international humanitarian law.”

According to Bahir’s interview with the “Beyond the News” program, any negotiation “must start from a clear condemnation of these tactics and a pledge not to repeat them,” noting that the high losses “raise the cost of any concessions expected from the Afghan government and strengthen the motive for responding.”

But Bahir called at the same time to acknowledge that Afghanistan does not have quick solutions to curb terrorist cells, in exchange for a declared commitment not to allow its territory to be used to harm its neighbourhood.

On the other hand, international relations researcher Hussein Sahar Wardi believes that Islamabad is required to take a clear negotiating path based on a red line entitled “cross-border terrorism.”

Sahar Wardi noted that the absence of an effective mechanism to curb Pakistani Taliban cells had prompted Islamabad to “re-evaluate options.”

But the Deputy Afghan Interior Ministry, Muhammad Nabi Omari, accused – in a previous statement – the Pakistani army of “not acting on its own, but rather implementing the orders of US President Donald Trump.”

In light of this, the Doha negotiations – according to the researcher in international relations, Wardi – should start from “the border security file first,” provided that trade is resumed and the crossings are gradually opened in parallel.

The expansion of Kabul’s relationship with New Delhi “increases sensitivity”, but it is “not a priority on the negotiating table” – as Sahar Wardi says – if the security file is closed with verifiable arrangements.

It is noteworthy that the Pakistani Minister of Information said that dozens of what he described as “terrorists” who tried to infiltrate into Pakistan were killed during the recently reached ceasefire.

Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir also accused India of financing what he described as terrorism in Afghanistan, and urged Afghans to choose mutual security with Pakistan instead of violence.

As for the first researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, Liqaa Makki, he linked the roots of the crisis to a complex border history and a tribal-geographic structure.

Likewise, Afghanistan’s pursuit of economic outlets through Iran towards India creates a feeling of “strategic distress” in Pakistan, which explains the overlapping of the security and economic files in the current escalation, according to Makki.

Paths to success

Analysts concluded that the Doha negotiations are based on 4 priority tracks:

• Security and borders: a mutual and sustainable ceasefire, curbing armed movements, and a direct military communication channel.
• Verification and monitoring mechanism: bilateral or sponsored by a third party for rapid reporting and investigation of violations.
• Crossings and trade: gradual opening linked to security arrangements to ease economic and social pressures.
• Confidence-building measures: written commitments to respect sovereignty and protect civilians, and an Afghan pledge not to allow the use of territory against the neighbourhood.

But these analysts acknowledged at the same time that the success of the Doha process depends on a clear trade-off:

• Security guarantees reassure Islamabad.
• Explicit pledges not to repeat the bombing and to respect sovereignty reassure Kabul.
• Parallel economic steps take the borders out of the spiral of escalation into a framework of viable calm.