Next winter will be atypical. It will have warmer temperatures, up to three degrees above average, and will be drier than usual, due to the presence of the “La Niña” phenomenon, which cools the waters of the equatorial Pacific and reduces the formation of cold fronts over the country.
These conditions are not directly linked to climate change, he clarified. Victor Torresresearcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change, by explaining that it is a natural climate variability that occurs every few years and temporarily alters temperature and rainfall patterns without representing a permanent change in the climate system.
In interview, Torres explained that the “La Niña” phenomenon is characterized by the anomalous cooling of the equatorial Pacific Oceanparticularly off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. This decrease in temperature reduces the energy available in the atmosphere and, with it, the frequency of cold fronts and rain over the national territory.
“There is less cloudiness, less humidity and more clear days, which generates a dry winter with slightly higher temperatures. When there are no clouds to act as a barrier, solar radiation enters with greater intensity during the day and heats the surface. But, as night falls, that same heat dissipates quickly into the atmosphere, which is why we will also have cold early mornings.
“It is a typical contrast of winters influenced by “La Niña”: mild days, frosty nights and a general feeling of dryness in the environment,” he said in detail.
According to the specialist from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), the current phase of “La Niña” will be weak or moderatewhich means that the temperature increase will not be extreme. “This is not about permanent heat, but rather a general trend warmer than average,” he added.
Although it is not considered a direct consequence of climate change, The researcher warned that global warming could be modifying the frequency with which these phenomena occur Well, before they were recorded every seven years and today, every three or five, an alteration that could be a sign that the climate system is accumulating more energy and adjusting its natural cycles.
“When we observe that phenomena such as “El Niño” or “La Niña” begin to occur more frequently, that may be a response of the climate system to the excess energy that is accumulating on Earth. Global warming does not create these events, but it can accelerate their cycles and modify their intensity, because the ocean and the atmosphere constantly seek to balance the heat that is retained by greenhouse gases,” he commented.
In different regions of the planet, signs of changing winter patterns are already being observed. Countries such as Greenland, Canada, Russia and northern European nations have been recording temperature increases of up to ten degrees during the winter for two decades, with increasingly shorter seasons and less presence of snow.
In the southern hemisphere, areas of South America and Australia show similar behaviors such as warmer winters, irregular rainfall and more frequent extreme phenomena, a result of the accumulation of heat in the atmosphere and oceans.
These changes, the researcher reported, They are part of a global trend where the climate system seeks to balance itself.
“The Earth is trapping more energy than it releases, and that extra energy must be redistributed. That is why we see alterations in the “El Niño” and “La Niña” cycles, or in the intensity of hurricanes and storms. These are responses of the system to stabilize itself,” he noted.
In the case of Mexico, the variation has been reflected in periods of prolonged heat, rains concentrated in very short periods and greater irregularity in winter temperatures.
The scientific projections of the National Autonomous University of Mexico indicate that the country will face progressively milder winterswith occasional episodes of extreme cold as part of the same climate compensation process.
Torres warned that these fluctuations will have environmental and social impacts such as alterations in agricultural cycles, water stress in northern and central basins, and greater exposure to urban heat waves.
“It’s not that the cold will disappear, but that it will become more unpredictable,” he stressed. “The challenge will be to adapt to a climate that changes increasingly rapidly and that is already showing its effects on daily life.”
SV