NEW YORK / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the American job market has changed dramatically. While the number of job openings has fallen by 30%, the S&P 500 has gained an impressive 70%. These developments raise questions about the real causes, with experts pointing to the role of monetary policy.
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The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 has sparked a remarkable development in the American job market. While job openings are down 30%, the S&P 500 is up an impressive 70%. This discrepancy has led to intensive discussions about the causes, with many initially suspecting artificial intelligence as the main culprit. But a deeper analysis shows that the reality is more complex.
A key factor that is often overlooked is the role of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in March 2022 to cool the overheating economy and tame inflation. These measures made credit more expensive, which reduced investment and consumer spending and thus dampened the demand for labor. The impact of this policy is clearly visible as the number of job vacancies has continued to decline since then.
Interestingly, a sectoral analysis shows that the industries most impacted by AI did not see the largest declines in job vacancies. The information sector, which is directly linked to AI development, recorded the smallest decline. In contrast, sectors such as construction and manufacturing, which are heavily affected by interest rates and trade restrictions, were hit the hardest. These industries rely on capital investments, which are made more expensive by higher interest rates.
As the job market weakens, AI-related stocks are booming. Companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft and Alphabet power the S&P 500 and have contributed significantly to its value. However, this concentration of profits in a few companies has also raised concerns about the possibility of a bubble forming. Experts warn that current market dynamics may be unsustainable if underlying economic conditions do not remain stable.
Overall, it is clear that the economic developments since the introduction of ChatGPT cannot be attributed solely to artificial intelligence. Rather, it is an interplay of monetary policy, trade restrictions and technological investments that is shaping the current situation. The future will show whether these trends will continue or whether adjustments will be necessary to ensure balanced economic growth.
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