A group of more than 30 businessmen participated in Mexico Day, which in reality was not one day, but three because it took place from October 20 to 22, led by Francisco Cervantes, president of the Business Coordinating Council and Altagracia Gómez, Coordinator of the Regional Development and Relocation Advisory Council.
Although the closure of operations or shutdown of the US government, Mexican businessmen met with government officials, legislators and businessmen from the United States.
Of course the central issue is the review of the USMCA, and everything indicates that not only Mexico and Canada but also the United States do not want it to be a renegotiation that would imply reopening the entire treaty, but rather a review to concentrate – of course – on the issues that interest Trump the most, who, given the difficulty in reaching agreements, does not want the intervention of Congress. A renegotiation would imply a longer and more complex process and would require the approval of the Congresses of the three countries.
What was also clear to the businessmen who participated in Mexico Day is that it will not be a simple or quick renegotiation and they do not rule out that it will not be completed by July 2026, which is the date established in the T-MEC itself.
It is evident that for businesspeople in the three countries, the ideal is for the review of the T-MEC to conclude no later than July so as not to prolong uncertainty and brake investments.
The Mexican delegation insisted and will continue to do so that Mexico is the main ally of the United States in its trade war against China, and the USMCA is the best instrument to strengthen companies.
It will not be a free ticket for Mexico
Everything indicates, as the optimistic Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, has stated, that most of the USTR’s objections to Mexico’s 50 non-tariff measures will be resolved favorably.
However, it is assumed that it will not be a free ticket for Mexico and that zero tariffs will not return in sectors that are politically key for Trump such as automotive, steel and agriculture.
In the case of the automotive sector, Trump insists that American automakers transfer their investments to the United States to generate more jobs in accordance with the objectives of his MAGA movement, Make America Great Again, which goes in the opposite direction to Claudia Sheinbaum’s priority, which is Plan Mexico and which also seeks to generate more investments and jobs but in our country.
The USTR will insist on increasing the rules of origin for the manufacture of light vehicles and heavy trucks. It must be remembered that in January 2023, the United States lost an arbitration panel on automotive rules of origin that it certainly did not modify without Mexico and Canada pressuring it to comply or applying retaliatory measures.
Something very important is that Trump also wants to increase the requirement that at least 40% of vehicles be manufactured in locations that pay at least $16 per hour, that is, in plants in the United States.
So far, no automotive manufacturer has announced plans to close plants in Mexico and move production to the United States, as Stellantis already did in Canada.
However, new investments in the automotive sector are slowing down and will continue to be so even after the review of the T-MEC.
Dark horse in CCE?
On November 6, the registration of candidates for president of the CCE begins, and the election remains very complicated because none of the three possible candidates has managed to guarantee the five of the 6 votes required to win: neither José Medina Mora, former president of Coparmex; nor Juan Cortina Gallardo, former president of the National Agricultural Council; nor Sofía Belmar, former president of the Mexican Association of Insurance Institutions.
Belmar has the support of Paco Cervantes and Altagracia Gómez and is said to be very well regarded by President Claudia Sheinbaum, but has not yet achieved consensus within AMIS. Where two former presidents block it.
The biggest problem is that the Mexican Business Council, which today has three presidents, is also divided, which in practice is generating obstacles to decision-making.
The surprise is that they are looking for another candidate, an industrialist, who would be a kind of dark horse in this election process.
Fourth of Together, not yet fourth deceased
What is intended is to strengthen the CCE just before the T-MEC negotiations and the quasi-disappearance of the Cuarto de Junto that is still coordinated by Judith Garza, CEO of Ternium.
Ebrard opened consultations to all sectors with greater inclusion but the CCE wants to strengthen the Cuarto de Junto to lead the negotiations on the part of the private sector and the problems in the election do nothing to help.
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