The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that Portugal’s budgetary situation has “improved considerably since the pandemic” and that the country is “on a good path in terms of public finances”.
“The budgetary situation has improved considerably since the pandemic and Portugal is on a good path with regard to public finances”, said Era Dabla-Norris, deputy director of the IMF’s Public Finance department, today at a press conference.
In the Fiscal Monitor, released today, the IMF projects a surplus of 0.2% this year and a zero balance for 2026. However, most institutions that follow the Portuguese economy point to a deficit.
Asked about this forecast for 2026, the person in charge highlighted that the State Budget for 2026 (OE2026) “points to a balance close to balance”.
“In Portugal, OE2026 was presented to parliament on October 10 and the expectation is that it will be approved with broad political support”, he said, adding that the forecast of a surplus of 0.1% in 2026 is “supported by a very strong primary balance, which reinforces Portugal’s commitment to solid public finances”.
The economist also pointed out that Portuguese public debt “peaked during the pandemic and is on a consistent reduction path”, and is expected to fall to less than 90% of GDP by the end of next year and continue to fall in the medium term.
The Government delivered OE2026 to parliament, which predicts that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 2% this year and 2.3% in 2026.
The executive intends to achieve surpluses of 0.3% of GDP in 2025 and 0.1% in 2026. As for the debt ratio, it estimates a reduction to 90.2% of GDP in 2025 and 87.8% in 2026.
The IMF, in projections released this week, predicts growth of 1.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.