LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – OPEC+ has decided to leave oil production unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. The decision comes amid fears of looming oversupply and a new U.S. attempt to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. If the peace plan fails, sanctions against Russia could be further tightened, which could affect oil supplies.
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, have agreed to leave oil production levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. This decision reflects the current market situation in which the group is acting cautiously to protect market share while at the same time there is a risk of oversupply. OPEC+ pumps around half of the world’s oil and faces the challenge of maintaining the balance between supply and demand.
Another important aspect of the recent OPEC+ meetings was the introduction of a mechanism to assess the maximum production capacity of member countries. This assessment is to be carried out between January and September 2026 and will serve as the basis for setting production quotas from 2027. This measure is particularly important as some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, have increased their capacity and are seeking higher quotas, while others, particularly African countries, are facing a decline in their production capacity.
The geopolitical situation also plays a crucial role in OPEC+ decisions. There are currently US efforts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could influence sanctions against Russia. If the peace plan fails, sanctions could be tightened, which could further restrict oil supplies from Russia. This would put further pressure on global oil supplies and influence OPEC+’s strategic decisions.
The current market situation shows that the stability of oil prices is a priority for OPEC+. Brent oil prices are currently around $63 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year. OPEC+ still has about 3.24 million barrels per day of production cuts in effect, representing about 3% of global demand. These cuts are expected to remain in place until the end of 2026 to ensure market stability.
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