Is reaching the “net zero” goal still possible? | Environment and climate

An in-depth report issued by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicates that the planet is at a critical juncture in climate action. It is theoretically possible to keep the world close to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, but the opportunities are rapidly narrowing due to the significant slowdown in the pace of implementing climate policies.

2024 was the hottest year on record, and the first year in which average global temperatures rose above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This highlights the increasing frequency and severity of the impacts of extreme weather that climate change has on human security and economic well-being.

Read also

list of 4 itemsend of list

Since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, important steps have been taken to change the course of the global climate, and current policy was expected to lead to a temperature rise of up to 4.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. With strengthened policies and increasing global ambition, this estimate has now reached a range of approximately 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius over the course of this century.

And he points out Report While this represents significant progress, it is still well above the 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement. More worryingly, new evidence indicates a slowdown in the pace of climate action as some countries, especially the United States, retreat from environmental and climate policies.

During 2022 and 2023, the level of stringency of global climate policies increased by only 1-2% per year, a staggering slowdown, according to the report, compared to the average annual increase of 10% in the previous decade.

Fill in the gaps

“In order to bridge the gap between ambition and fulfillment of commitments, we must raise our level of performance and ensure that we deliver what we aspire to,” says OECD Secretary-General Matthias Cormann in the introduction to the report.

The report contains many visualizations and data that underscore the necessity and potential of climate action, especially how cost barriers to clean energy and emissions reductions have largely disappeared.

It also emphasizes the possibility of reducing emissions in the oil, gas, coal, agriculture and waste sectors, and reducing up to 85 megatons of methane emissions by 2030, as well as how the energy sector will provide the greatest opportunities in the short term.

Amid concerns about economic compromises, the report reveals that ambitious climate action is possible without harming economic growth, and that increasing NDCs, if implemented with well-thought-out policies and adequate financing, can accelerate the development of efficient energy systems.

It can also provide significant employment opportunities and bring important co-benefits, such as improved energy access, reduced emissions, enhanced energy security, and improved health.

According to the report, the global market size for 6 main green energy technologies, namely solar photovoltaic energy, air energy, electric vehicles, batteries, electrolyzers, and heat pumps, will reach more than $700 billion in 2023.

Under current policies, this market is expected to expand to nearly 3 times this size by 2035, on par with the recent global crude oil market.

The report identifies the years up to 2030 as very crucial to stimulate innovation and investment in this field, as green industrial policies can be used to create positive turning points to drive technology development and promote emissions reductions.

On the other hand, he points out that these policies involve risks and must be properly designed and implemented to avoid market distortions, excess production capacity, and trade tensions.

As a quick solution, the report believes that taking action to reduce methane emissions could be a practical application to curb global warming. Reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030 would eliminate about 0.2°C of global warming by 2050.

The report also shows that investments in clean energy reached $1.7 trillion in 2022, which represents a very small fraction of the $26.4 trillion in fixed capital formation during the same year. Despite the progress achieved, the scale of reorganization of the financial system required remains enormous, according to the report.

It also points to the need to double investment by at least 2030, to reach $2.4 trillion annually by the end of the decade, from about $600 billion in 2022, in developing economies and emerging markets.

The report identifies the gap in developing countries’ needs at $1.7 trillion, but it offers few concrete solutions beyond the tired slogans of “blended finance” and “enabling environments.”

The necessity of adaptation

As climate impacts worsen, the report stresses the need to accelerate adaptation investments and activities. Global annual adaptation needs are expected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars, while total adaptation investment flows are expected to reach $76 billion in 2022, a number that is far from meeting requirements.

The report provides a practical guide to the action governments need to take to address climate challenges with the speed, scale and coordination needed to confront the crisis, and argues that achieving net-zero emissions is still possible, but only by taking radical action now across all sectors of the economy and society.

Despite the report’s optimistic tone, it also reveals some disturbing truths: policy momentum has slowed when it should have accelerated, public confidence in government environmental policies remains shaky, and the evidence base needed to optimize policy design remains absent.

According to experts, success in the task of achieving net zero emissions requires not only the application of known solutions, but also rapid learning from pioneering policy experiences, and a firm political will in the face of increasing climate fluctuations.

According to the report, the next half decade will determine whether the world is able to achieve the 1.5 degree Celsius goal, or whether it will be satisfied with accepting a more ambiguous and dangerous climate future, but it confirms that the implementation challenge has now become more difficult, if not impossible.