President Donald Trump may have learned a few things from the elections that took place this week in New York City and the states of New Jersey and Virginia. I say it this way, although with some doubt, from my own experience. I worked closely with several dictators and other absolutists and I realized that they always find a justification for their defeats, when they don’t talk about victories. And they continue in the same autocratic line, while making some electoral adjustments and finding scapegoats, internal and external enemies. The blame is attributed to these enemies, more or less invented and ferociously demonized. The regime’s propaganda is then always intensified. I have never seen an authoritarian leader leave power on his own or take responsibility for a defeat at the polls.
Trump must have noticed the reasons for these defeats – or someone in his closest circle will have risked the suicidal political courage of drawing his attention.
First, the cost of living and the economic situation of voters continue to be important electoral arguments. New York is one of the most expensive cities in the world. It ranks first when it comes to the cost of housing rental. And the price of basic necessities, when compared to the average salary of its inhabitants, is proportionally one of the highest on the planet. New Jersey and Virginia have exaggerated fees and taxes, unaffordable energy and healthcare systems, and a lack of jobs. The economy is, in democracies, a very strong electoral argument.
Second, pragmatism attracts votes. People are starting to get tired of the inter-party intolerance, which is fed daily by extremists in the USA, with Trump at the head. Moderation and realism in the face of everyday problems have great electoral advantages. It is a lesson that may be valid in other parts of the world where voting is free, in Portugal or as happened last week in the Netherlands. The citizens of our democracies are starting to get fed up with shouting, exaggerations and idiotic extremism. They want proposals for solutions that respond to their concerns and fundamental difficulties. They also do not want social communication that increases verbal radicalism and stupid behavior.
Third, opposition to Trump’s instability, inhumanity and bad and dangerous governance is growing. In last week’s CNN/SSRS poll, the president’s approval level dropped to 37%. It continues to be unconditionally supported by a significant fringe of Republicans, but the trend among independents is at a continued low. It also appears that some of the Democrats who voted for him a year ago are now regretting it.
Trump may be considered a bad ruler and a prominent member among the autocratic leaders who are at the head of several countries, but I am sure he knows what they all know: the essential thing is not to lose power. To achieve this, these people create fictions and false narratives, especially those that can cause fear, destabilize the electorate and encourage hatred against segments of society that may be accused of being strange and having different behaviors.
He tried to do this with the winner of the election for mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani. This candidate, who ended up defeating not only Trump but also the usual elites of the Democratic Party, met all the conditions to be an easy target to kill politically: Muslim by religion, democratic socialist by conviction and son of immigrant parents, of Afro-Indostani origin. He won and showed that religion or immigrant status are not arguments that matter in an advanced democratic society. Sadiq Khan, the Labor president of the London council, had demonstrated this when he was elected in 2016. Khan was considered in 2018 by the magazine Time one of the 100 most influential people on the planet. I don’t see any Portuguese politician on the lists of Time.
In the next 12 months, before the mid-term elections for the Federal Congress, Trump will try to sabotage the governance of Mamdani and the two governors now elected. He will do the same against all Democrats in charge of other states and cities. This is how the false narrative of the opponents’ incompetence is constructed. The deployment of National Guard soldiers to cities with a democratic majority will also continue, to make public opinion prevail the idea that the democratic opposition is synonymous with social chaos and inability in the fight against crime.
At the international level, he will seek to demonstrate a firm and warlike hand against Venezuela, Colombia and Nigeria, among others. It will not show firmness against Russia or China. Trump’s style involves subordination to the strong and brute force against the weak. You know you shouldn’t attack strong powers. But the others could easily be defeated, some under the pretext of combating organized crime that traffics drugs into the USA, others under the invented alibi of defending those who practice the Christian faith. In both cases, we have material here that can mobilize voters and paint a noble and determined portrait of Trump. In the politics of make-believe, the image often counts more than the truth. After these defeats, Trump will play hard and ugly, accentuating his authoritarianism. Will Americans and Europeans have the courage to raise their voices and say no, that enough is enough?
International security advisor.
Former UN Deputy Secretary-General