The economy of Mexico continues in a stalemate by confirming a contraction during the third quarter of 2025 of the economic activity.
He Inegi reported that the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) that advanced 0.6% in Augustnow fell 0.5% in Septemberbut in October there will be no variation or that will place it at 0% (zero percent).
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An analysis of Banamex carried out by the economist Laura Díaz projects that we have a stagnant industry y weak data in the services sector.
While in September, the IOAE behavior was a result of the 0.4% monthly drop in industrial production and of a 0.1% increase in servicesit is in October that a decline in activity is confirmed in the third quarter of the year with an advance of 0.1% monthly.
“We maintain our projection that the GDP for 2025 will have a growth of 0.4%.”
GDP contraction in the third quarter can be revised downwards
Meanwhile, the Base Bank estimated that the probability increases that the third quarter GDP contraction (-0.3%) sea revised downwards in your publication tomorrow Friday.
“For his part, In October there was zero growth (0.00%)so there is no rebound from the drop recorded in September. On average, between January and October, economic activity has registered a monthly growth of 0.05%”, detailed the study.
Base assumed that if the growth is repeated in November and Decemberhe Fourth quarter GDP would show a quarterly contraction close to 0.1%confirming the so-called “technical recession”. If this materializes in the year GDP would show a growth of 0.6%the lowest since 2020 (-8.6%) and prior to that year, since 2019 (-0.4%), according to Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at the bank.
He Timely Indicator of Economic Activity allows us to have timely estimates on the evolution of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (GAE) that anticipates a projection of Mexico’s GDP.
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INDUSTRY STOPPED
Janneth Quirozhead of analysis at Monex, recalled that the industrial sector accumulates an annual decline of 1.8% only between January and August.
“In parallel, business confidence remains in contraction territory in the sectors related to manufacturing, construction and commerce, once again showing signs of moderation after three months of progress,” he emphasized.