FRANKFURT / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – The DAX is poised for a potential year-end rally, driven by the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and progress in peace negotiations in the Ukraine conflict. Investors are optimistic, but experts warn about the ongoing uncertainties in the market. The coming weeks could be crucial, especially given the upcoming inflation figures and purchasing managers’ indices.
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The German stock market is looking forward to the coming weeks, in which a possible year-end rally is expected. This hope is fueled by the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and progress in peace negotiations in the Ukraine conflict. Investors are hoping that these developments will give the DAX the boost it needs to continue its recent upward trend.
However, capital market strategist Jürgen Molnar from Robomarkets remains cautious. He emphasizes that the DAX’s recovery movement is still fragile. A decisive move above the 50-day average line at around 23,850 points could give the benchmark index the necessary strength to tackle the 24,000 point mark. It is important that the DAX does not fall below the threshold of 23,500 points in order to maintain the chance of positive momentum in December.
Robert Halver from Baader Bank emphasizes that the current stock market sentiment depends heavily on whether the Fed will actually cut the key interest rate on December 10th. Even if the Fed waits, it could correct this next year. Halver also speculates that the possible appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed chief from May 2026 could increase expectations of further interest rate cuts.
Analyst Frank Klumpp from LBBW points to an increased probability of over 85 percent for an interest rate cut, which was recently at 50 percent. With the impending end of Jerome Powell’s term in office and little economic data that could influence Fed policy, the coming days and in particular the purchasing managers’ indices will be in focus. The upcoming inflation figures in the Eurozone and various economic data from Europe are also eagerly awaited.
On the corporate side, the week offers several highlights, including Bilfinger’s Capital Markets Day and the publication of Aurubis’ annual figures. Inditex and SAP competitor Salesforce will present their figures on the international stage on Wednesday. These events could provide additional impetus for the market and have a significant impact on the direction of the DAX in the coming weeks.
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