Banamex anticipates that the minimum wage will increase at least 11% in 2026, slightly less than what it grew in 2025, if the federal government’s policy of reaching 2.5 basic baskets by 2030 continues.
Since the beginning of Claudia Sheinbaum’s term, the minimum wage has increased annually; By 2025 it reached an increase of 12%, remaining at 278.80 pesos for most of the country and 419.88 in the free zone on the border with the US.
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In the morning conference, the president confirmed that her administration will consider an increase in the minimum wage for 2026, which she assured will be similar to that of 2025.
Banamex’s analysis concluded that for the goal of 2.5 basic baskets to be achieved, it is necessary that the annual increase be maintained between 10% and 12% and if the estimate of 11% for the following year is met, the minimum wage would remain at 309.5 pesos per day.
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Regarding the risk of an acceleration in inflation due to the increase in the minimum wage, Banamex does not foresee such a scenario in its analysis, so an environment of stability will be maintained.
Despite the above, the alerts remain active, since companies could present an extra burden of salaries as a result of the constant increases.