The State Budget proposal for 2026, delivered this Thursday to Parliament, confirms expectations: it is a technocratic, schematic and deliberately contained document. The Government opted for a budget with a minimum budgetary margin – a surplus of just 0.1% of GDP – and with little opening for political negotiations. The message is clear: there will be no room for compromise or major revisions in the specialty.
With the leader of the Socialist Party, José Luís Carneiro, signaling his willingness to make the document viable, its approval seems guaranteed. But what deserves attention is not the parliamentary outcome – it is the nature of the document itself. Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento chose a technical path, avoiding the usual noise of budget proposals that promise everything and anything, but whose implementation is rarely scrutinized.
The State Budget is not a five-year plan, nor a business plan. It serves to define, authorize and control how public money will be collected and spent over the course of a year. And, in this sense, perhaps the greatest compliment that can be given to this proposal is precisely what some point out as a defect: lack of ambition and strategic vision. The country needs a vision, yes – but this must be in the Government programs, in the medium-term plans, in the structural reforms. The Budget serves to say how these choices are financed, not to replace them.
Where the document deserves scrutiny is above all in its assumptions. We live in a world of high uncertainty, and the risks are real. Economic growth was revised downwards to 2% this year and 2.3% in 2026 – values that raise doubts about the sustainability of budgetary targets. The implementation of the PRR remains slow, public investments face bureaucratic obstacles, and private investments hesitate in the face of political instability. It is all of this, more than the fact that the Budget is not the mega-saving document that we have become accustomed to in recent decades, that should worry us.
The war in Eastern Europe persists, impacting our trading partners. Defense spending may be higher than expected. And the global situation continues to be marked by energy volatility, inflationary pressure and geopolitical challenges.
There are clouds on the horizon. But there is also room for positive surprises. The technical rigor of the budget can be an anchor in uncertain times – as long as restraint is not confused with immobility. The real test will be the ability to execute. Because a budget is only good if it is adhered to. And it is only useful if it is able to adapt to reality.
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