“Won’t find me practising what I’m preaching, won’t find me making no sacrifice” Mike Rutherford, Tony Banks, Phil Collins
If we needed any evidence of the Government’s attempted interference in independent institutions, Nadia Calviño has confirmed them in her memoirs. That it has not had the slightest qualms about putting its chest out to put pressure on the INE shows that this government feels with impunity and safe conduct to assault the institutions.
Even though I have failed, the European Union, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and Eurostat They should be alarmed at the constant interference and pressure on independent institutions.
However, they look the other way because the collapse of the system of democratic checks and balances and waste in Spain are secondary compared to the economic and fiscal collapse of France, for example.
The last thing we needed to read is that the troop of economists who accompanied and supported Calviño in his already public attempt to assault the INE, the same ones who amplified the discredit campaign, present themselves today as the supposed defenders of the independence of the institution.
Calviño’s phrases in his memoirs should cause resignations and an immediate audit
Calviño’s phrases in his memoirs should cause resignations and an immediate audit. They reflect an astonishing paternalism, condescension and perception of superiority and impunity that reveal intolerable interference.
He states that “at the Ministry of Economy we were clear that there was a problem with the INE’s GDP estimation methodology. We have never really known why, but the fact is that For years, the statistical agency maintained an estimate of activity that was much lower than the real one.”
And it stays so wide. He continues: “Out of institutional respect, I did not want to publicly question the work of the INE.” Indeed, his entourage of advisors, media and close economists were already taking care of that, even a minister saying ““The INE has been miscalculating GDP for three years.”
Calviño affirms that all of this “required me to do a real juggling act in the interviews and parliamentary questions. But we could try to help them on a technical level to improve their methodologies, and that is what we did.” Take it now. Help. Orwell would not have imagined anything like that.
Doubts about the independence of the INE were not spread by evil conservative or libertarian economistsbut Mrs. Calviño and the cohort of Government propagandists. With those “defenders”, it is better not to have them.
The INE increased the GDP in 2024 from 2021 to 2023, culminating in 1,498 from 1,446 billion in the previous review
The Association of Senior State Statisticians (AESE) recalls the intolerable “paternalistic tone” of Calviño’s words and affirms that “Ms. Nadia Calviño’s assertions, presented in a context that cannot be the subject of improvisation – such as the writing of a book -, acquire a special gravity, given that she claims to have carried out actions that imply the recognition of an attempt at interference” and continues: “These attempts at interference by political power have not achieved their objectives in the INE, but they can cause enormous damage to the institution and the credibility of its statistics, especially all because they have been openly exposed by someone who today occupies a position of such importance as the presidency of the European Investment Bank. It cannot be ignored that all of this occurs in a context of growing social discredit of other State institutions.
Subsequently, we witnessed the retrospective review of the GDP. Statistical revisions are normal and it is logical that they be done to improve the data. These reviews were carried out according to the normal calendar, not, as Calviño tries to show, because has been learned from her and her wonderful “real” data.
The INE increased the GDP from 2021 to 2023 in 2024, culminating in 1,498 from 1,446 trillion in the previous review. This, compared to the 2019 base, represents an increase of 4.2 points, more than double the eurozone average (2.09), much more than Germany (1.92), France (0.64), Italy (2.63), Belgium (1.03), Ireland (2.19), Portugal (0.74) and Finland (-2.3) according to Eurostat data.
If we take the original 2019 GDP as a basis and see the difference between the revised 2023 GDP and the GDP before the two huge revisions of the past carried out, we see that in Spain the equivalent of Murcia’s GDP was found in the past.
The Government of Spain dopes the GDP with immigration, political spending and European funds, but the GDP per capita remains stagnant, it is very far from the growth that they sell us, the activity rate is stagnant
GDP revisions are common around the world. Normally, an advance data is given, a final one and the revisions usually move in a few tenths.
For me The INE is one of the pillars of independent institutions. It has enormous prestige and, as such, I have defended it when they said it was inflated by 20% and when, for the same reasons, they said it was underestimated.
The most important thing is that, using INE data and, after three giant revisions of the past GDP, the GDP between 2018 and 2023 only grew by 286,048 million, triggering public spending by 70,648 million, the GDP per capita at constant prices remained stagnant, and that taking into account an increase in debt of 388,727 million and an injection of European funds of 66,000 million. A disaster.
What has the Government used statistical reviews for? The trick of using the statistical review of the past to disguise indebtedness, sell propaganda and increase taxes further. It had never occurred to anyone.
Unlike Calviño’s cohort who launched an assault on the INE, we will continue to defend an independent and rigorous INE and its excellent professionals.
Calviño tried to create an alternative GDP (remember the nonsense of his daily GDP?) and now they want to promote an indicator of “experimental statistics”, the “Multidimensional Quality of Life Indicator” that sells you a parallel and magical reality that you do not live.
National accounting is wonderful and very stubborn. There is no way to hide the reality when you look at the data with a magnifying glass beyond the press release headline. What does the INE tell us today, just like the one from then?
The Government of Spain dopes the GDP with immigration, political spending and European funds, but the GDP per capita remains stagnant, it is very far from the growth that they sell us, the activity rate is stagnant, the hours worked per affiliation fall, Inflation is higher than the euro zone average and the impoverishment of the population is alarming.
The problem is that what Calviño has revealed is not a lapse, it is a government policy. Interference in independent institutions, in justice, interference and assault on the free press, politicization of companies with public money, makeup of employment data, alarming changes in the calculation methodology that distort unemployment figures, crime figures and everything that the Government needs for its propaganda.
This government has elevated the assault on independent institutions and the business community as a policy that they implement without shame and that, furthermore, they do not hide. The problem is that the opposition does not understand that, if it comes to government, this mechanism will be used to remain in power and bias, even if they do not govern.
Gentlemen of the Government, no matter how much they try to disguise reality, the Spanish are not stupid. Sanchismo has squandered the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in history and will leave an impoverished and ruined country.